All-weather investing

Seeking consistent positive returns.

Come rain or shine.

Ruffer provides investment management services for institutions, pension funds, charities, financial planners and individual investors.
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31 Charlotte Square
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A paper tiger after all?
December 2023: Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell is seeking to emulate his predecessor Paul Volcker in bringing runaway inflation back under control. So far, markets have cheered his progress. Volcker was able to tighten policy - and keep it tight – because the politics of the day allowed for it. But as Economist Jamie Dannhauser points out, this Fed may not have those same favourable political winds in its sails. The real challenge for the Federal Reserve, may still be to come.
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A few bad apples?
May 2023: Markets have breathed a sigh of relief as turmoil in the US banking sector appears to have been contained. But a string of bank failures may merely be a symptom of wider, more troubling dynamics at hand in financial markets. Economist Jamie Dannhauser discusses the fragility of the current investment landscape and explains why our conviction of an impending liquidation event in markets is growing stronger.
The Hemingway recession
In every market cycle comes a moment when investors, en masse, face a shocking revelation – when the improbable becomes unwelcome reality. Our fear is that we are fast approaching such a moment. Here, Economist Jamie Dannhauser discusses the fragility of today’s financial system, the likelihood of recession and the inability of central banks to remedy the inflation problem without significant cost for investors.
Whatever it breaks
Central bankers once again face their old foe – inflation. Investors expect inflation to drop sharply in 2023 and the monetary cavalry to arrive by the second half of the year. But might those hopes be misguided?
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Re-enter the dragon
January 2023: Jamie Dannhauser looks at the effects of China’s reopening on the global economy. If chaos does emerge in China’s labour market, it’s unlikely to be good news for asset markets. Optimists look forward to a powerful rebound in growth, but could it relight the inflationary flames?
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The last domino to fall?
September 2022: So far in 2022, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has resolutely stuck to its policy of negative interest rates and yield curve control (YCC), despite the dramatic hawkish shift from the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) and, more recently, the yen’s nosedive. Might the BoJ be about to change course?
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Swimming naked
July 2022: It is hard to overstate how far free and unlimited central bank liquidity has rewired the financial system. As central bankers extract themselves from the monetary rabbit hole they have burrowed their way into, the damage to traditional portfolios is likely to be considerable. This tightening of monetary policy is happening because inflation has returned – with a vengeance.
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Short dreams, long reality
Economic conditions of the last few decades have supported a long ascent in the majority of asset prices. Investors must now confront conditions alien to most, potentially leading to a more painful descent. In this webinar, Ruffer’s economist, Jamie Dannhauser will explore the key dynamics of this changed economic landscape.
Taking back control?
In the late 1970s, the world was on the cusp of radical change. The ‘Deflation Machine’ was being born. Deng Xiaoping began reforming China’s moribund economy. In the West, liberal, free-market ideals were gaining traction, ideals that underpinned the subsequent regime of rapid, disinflationary global growth.
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Staying power versus paying power
March 2022: Central bankers tell us the current burst of inflation will be transitory and workers will not mind the temporary squeeze on their living standards. In today’s full employment economy, this is not convincing. The implied policy response is flawed, potentially even reckless.
London
80 Victoria Street
London SW1E 5JL
Edinburgh
31 Charlotte Square
Edinburgh EH2 4ET
Paris
103 boulevard Haussmann
75008 Paris, France