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Crossing the Rubicon
Investors face one of the most complex market environments in history. Simultaneous shifts in the global energy system, geopolitics, demography, technology and much else besides promise a more inflation-prone and volatile world ahead. This brings with it elevated risks, but also potential rewards. Amidst all the uncertainty, this presentation will examine what investors can have conviction about.
The gathering storm
China’s bid for global power, climate change and the transition away from fossil fuels are three of the defining megatrends of our time. Collectively, they promise generational upheaval. But decades of peace and stability have left markets, politics, economies and societies complacent and vulnerable. It’s going to get bumpy.
The Great Acceleration
The coronavirus crisis has accelerated pre-existing tectonic shifts that are changing world order. Four interlinked areas deserve the attention of long-term investors: greater geopolitical instability; the digital revolution; domestic political changes in the advanced economies; and the rise of environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations.
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Techtonics
March 2021: From the green economy to the new Cold War, cyber Pearl Harbors to a reimagining of inflation and money itself – technological change has radical consequences for investors. We look at the key challenges and opportunities in the age of transformation.
Scrabbling around for income
July 2020: Coronavirus shutdowns have triggered the worst recession since the Great Depression. Like a depth charge dropped against a submarine, we’ve felt the shockwave but have yet to see how much debris floats to the surface. Ratings agencies suggest the damage is serious and that default rates will soar.
Covid-19 and the dawn of a new market era
April 2020: The era of monetary dominance is over. Helicopter money signals investment regime changes ahead.
Cold War II
World order has never been so complex for investors. The US and China have entered a new phase of long-term strategic global competition.
Gravity: suspended until further notice
February 2020: What on earth is going on? Gravity is a universal constant. But it turns out that zero interest rates can suspend it – in financial markets, at least.
Has We killed the unicorns?
October 2019: WeWork’s ill-fated IPO is the tip of an iceberg
Playing chicken with a crocodile
July 2019: Low rates and quantitative easing (QE) have created another asset bubble
London
80 Victoria Street
London SW1E 5JL
Edinburgh
31 Charlotte Square
Edinburgh EH2 4ET
Paris
103 boulevard Haussmann
75008 Paris, France