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The Great Acceleration

The coronavirus crisis has accelerated pre-existing tectonic shifts that are changing world order.

24 mins | Ruffer Review
Ruffer Review
Alexander Chartres
Articles by Alexander
Alexander Chartres
Fund Manager
29 March 2021

Four interlinked areas deserve the attention of long-term investors: greater geopolitical instability; the digital revolution; domestic political changes in the advanced economies; and the rise of environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations.

Together, these make for a more volatile and inflation-prone regime, one that is less favourable to capital. In short, we’re moving from a world where profit trumped politics, to one where politics trump profit.

The ostrich effect describes a refusal to engage with negative information. Pre-pandemic, much of the investment world was in denial about the reality of Cold War II and the geopolitical regime change it entails.

Little wonder. Several decades of Great Power peace supercharged globalisation and the integration of cheap Chinese workers with the world economy. Both have been key drivers of the falling inflation, interest rates and volatility which have underwritten a Golden Age for capital. But unfettered Sino-Western entanglement only made sense if history had died with the first Cold War. It hadn’t, and a new East-West schism guarantees at least a partial unravelling of this profitable settlement.

With covid-19 fallout sending US-China relations to their lowest ebb since formal ties were established in 1979, a fundamental change in world order is now harder to ignore. Trade tensions quickly became a footnote as the tech war escalated, morphing into outright hostility and nakedly ideological competition...

 

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#Cold War II, #fiscal policy, #regime change
Ruffer Review 2021
Download our 2021 edition of the Ruffer Review. In it we explore the fate of traditional balanced portfolios, our latest big picture thinking – on regime change and inflation – as well as fresh perspectives on trust, belief and behavioural bias.
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Jurassic risk
The death of inflation has been greatly exaggerated. Its return will ruin the traditional balanced 60/40 portfolios. Investors need to prepare for a world of greater inflation volatility and with it the possibility that bonds and equities fall in tandem.
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Cold War II
World order has never been so complex for investors. The US and China have entered a new phase of long-term strategic global competition.
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This article was originally published in the Ruffer Review 2021.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income derived therefrom can decrease as well as increase and you may not get back the full amount originally invested. Ruffer performance is shown after deduction of all fees and management charges, and on the basis of income being reinvested. The value of overseas investments will be influenced by the rate of exchange.

The views expressed in this article are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment or financial instrument, including interests in any of Ruffer’s funds. The information contained in the article is fact based and does not constitute investment research, investment advice or a personal recommendation, and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. This document does not take account of any potential investor’s investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation. This document reflects Ruffer’s opinions at the date of publication only, the opinions are subject to change without notice and Ruffer shall bear no responsibility for the opinions offered. Read the full disclaimer.
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London
Ruffer LLP
80 Victoria Street
London SW1E 5JL
Directions | Map +44 (0)20 7963 8100
Paris
Ruffer S.A.
103 boulevard Haussmann
75008 Paris, France
Directions | Map +33 (0)1 88 45 02 54
New York
Ruffer LLC
300 Park Avenue
New York NY 10022
Directions | Map +1 917 947 3003
Edinburgh
Ruffer LLP
31 Charlotte Square
Edinburgh EH2 4ET
Directions | Map +44 (0)131 202 1602