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Ruffer LLP
80 Victoria Street
London SW1E 5JL
Paris
Ruffer S.A.
103 boulevard Haussmann
75008 Paris, France
New York
Ruffer LLC
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New York NY 10022
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Ruffer LLP
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Fiscal policy

Showing articles with the 'fiscal policy' tag filter.
It's a very, very mad world
October 2023: Some extraordinary dynamics have emerged in markets in 2023. None more startling than the breakdown of the typical relationship between bond yields and equity valuations – especially mega-cap tech stocks. So far, it’s been bond investors who have endured the pain of rising real yields. But is an equity market repricing – reflective of stickier inflation and ‘higher for longer’ rates – the shoe that’s yet to drop?
A starter for yen
September 2023: The Bank of Japan has been marching to a different beat to other central banks. While the Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of England hurried to ramp up rates in a battle against inflation, a deflationary mist lingered over Japan. Until now…
A few bad apples?
May 2023: Markets have breathed a sigh of relief as turmoil in the US banking sector appears to have been contained. But a string of bank failures may merely be a symptom of wider, more troubling dynamics at hand in financial markets. Economist Jamie Dannhauser discusses the fragility of the current investment landscape and explains why our conviction of an impending liquidation event in markets is growing stronger.
Reasons to Be Fearful, Part 3*
October 2022: So far this year, we’ve seen a painful but orderly repricing of risky assets. Now, we fear something worse – a possible liquidation event. One in which owners of risky assets like equities and credit are forced into a sudden rush for the exit.
The Barber Boom
The story of an economic gear shift which sent post-war Britain careering around country lanes, before skidding on an oil slick and being sent ditchward. There it was left, engine smoking, entangled in the brambles of inflation. It wasn’t until 1980 that road-side recovery eventually arrived in the shape of Paul Volcker and his inflation curbing toolkit.
The last domino to fall?
September 2022: So far in 2022, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has resolutely stuck to its policy of negative interest rates and yield curve control (YCC), despite the dramatic hawkish shift from the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) and, more recently, the yen’s nosedive. Might the BoJ be about to change course?
Swimming naked
July 2022: It is hard to overstate how far free and unlimited central bank liquidity has rewired the financial system. As central bankers extract themselves from the monetary rabbit hole they have burrowed their way into, the damage to traditional portfolios is likely to be considerable. This tightening of monetary policy is happening because inflation has returned – with a vengeance.
The perils of yesterday’s logic
Increasing inflation volatility represents the greatest challenge to investors for a generation. A new regime and the collapse of the financial market status quo requires us to reimagine portfolios. No longer can we rely on yesterday’s logic.
The Great Acceleration
The coronavirus crisis has accelerated pre-existing tectonic shifts that are changing world order. Four interlinked areas deserve the attention of long-term investors: greater geopolitical instability; the digital revolution; domestic political changes in the advanced economies; and the rise of environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations.
Jurassic risk
The death of inflation has been greatly exaggerated. Its return will ruin the traditional balanced 60/40 portfolios. Investors need to prepare for a world of greater inflation volatility and with it the possibility that bonds and equities fall in tandem.
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London
Ruffer LLP
80 Victoria Street
London SW1E 5JL
Paris
Ruffer S.A.
103 boulevard Haussmann
75008 Paris, France
New York
Ruffer LLC
300 Park Avenue
New York NY 10022
Edinburgh
Ruffer LLP
31 Charlotte Square
Edinburgh EH2 4ET