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Ruffer provides investment management services for institutions, pension funds, charities, financial planners and individual investors.
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London
Ruffer LLP
80 Victoria Street
London SW1E 5JL
Paris
Ruffer S.A.
103 boulevard Haussmann
75008 Paris, France
New York
Ruffer LLC
300 Park Avenue
New York NY 10022
Edinburgh
Ruffer LLP
31 Charlotte Square
Edinburgh EH2 4ET

The Green Line

A monthly chart, plus a short commentary
A golden ticket?
January 2024: 2022 showed how crucial asset correlations are for portfolio resilience, as equities and bonds fell together. While markets celebrated falling inflation last year, this month’s Green Line examines inflation volatility’s importance in the new regime and potential opportunities for investors.
A paper tiger after all?
December 2023: Fed Chairman Powell aims to control inflation like his predecessor Volcker did. While markets approve his progress so far, Economist Jamie Dannhauser notes that unlike Volcker, Powell may lack the political support to maintain tight policy. The Fed’s greatest test may lie ahead.
So you want stock TIPS?
November 2023: After a bond market rout commensurate with the steepest and fastest rate hiking cycle in a generation, is there now a case for adding fixed income into portfolios? Perhaps - there might even be two. In this month’s green line, Fund Manager Duncan MacInnes looks at the cyclical and structural cases for inflation-linked bonds.
It's a very, very mad world
October 2023: Some extraordinary dynamics have emerged in markets in 2023. None more startling than the breakdown of the typical relationship between bond yields and equity valuations – especially mega-cap tech stocks. So far, it’s been bond investors who have endured the pain of rising real yields. But is an equity market repricing – reflective of stickier inflation and ‘higher for longer’ rates – the shoe that’s yet to drop?
A starter for yen
September 2023: The Bank of Japan has been marching to a different beat to other central banks. While the Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of England hurried to ramp up rates in a battle against inflation, a deflationary mist lingered over Japan. Until now…
Is discretion the better part of valour?
June 2023: Whilst it’s been a tough start to the year for cautious investors, equity valuations – particularly in the US – suggest the rally could run out of steam, and cash now offers a tempting alternative. Moreover, with inflation stubbornly high, central bankers will be reluctant to intervene if markets encounter turbulence. Against this backdrop, we think caution is still justified.
A few bad apples?
May 2023: Markets have calmed following US banking sector turmoil, but recent bank failures may signal deeper problems in financial markets. Economist Jamie Dannhauser warns of growing market fragility and an increasing likelihood of a major liquidation event.
Blood on the tracks
April 2023: Today's policymakers face an impossible but unavoidable choice – they must send the train down one track or the other. Either they let inflation gather steam or they pull the proverbial lever and risk a financial system calamity. There is no third way.
A Hemingway moment for markets?
March 2023: As the sun now sets on 2023’s first earnings season, we fear equity markets are heading for a Hemingway moment. Jasmine Yeo explores why in our latest Green Line.
Having your cake and eating it?
February 2023: Markets have rallied in expectation of a soft landing for the US economy and interest rate cuts from the Fed. As Steve Russell explains, markets can have one or the other, but both seems implausible. And any disappointment could leave investors feeling distinctly nauseous.  
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London
Ruffer LLP
80 Victoria Street
London SW1E 5JL
Paris
Ruffer S.A.
103 boulevard Haussmann
75008 Paris, France
New York
Ruffer LLC
300 Park Avenue
New York NY 10022
Edinburgh
Ruffer LLP
31 Charlotte Square
Edinburgh EH2 4ET