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Seeking consistent positive returns.

Come rain or shine.

Ruffer provides investment management services for institutions, pension funds, charities, financial planners and individual investors.
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London
Ruffer LLP
80 Victoria Street
London SW1E 5JL
Paris
Ruffer S.A.
103 boulevard Haussmann
75008 Paris, France
New York
Ruffer LLC
300 Park Avenue
New York NY 10022
Edinburgh
Ruffer LLP
31 Charlotte Square
Edinburgh EH2 4ET

The Green Line

A monthly chart, plus a short commentary
Reasons to Be Fearful, Part 3*
October 2022: So far this year, we’ve seen a painful but orderly repricing of risky assets. Now, we fear something worse – a possible liquidation event. One in which owners of risky assets like equities and credit are forced into a sudden rush for the exit.
The last domino to fall?
September 2022: So far in 2022, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has resolutely stuck to its policy of negative interest rates and yield curve control (YCC), despite the dramatic hawkish shift from the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) and, more recently, the yen’s nosedive. Might the BoJ be about to change course?
Swimming naked
July 2022: It is hard to overstate how far free and unlimited central bank liquidity has rewired the financial system. As central bankers extract themselves from the monetary rabbit hole they have burrowed their way into, the damage to traditional portfolios is likely to be considerable. This tightening of monetary policy is happening because inflation has returned – with a vengeance.
La la land?
June 2022: Who’d be a central banker today? Once, they were the masters of the universe, bravely slaying the dragon of inflation and slashing interest rates to save the economy in times of peril. Today, they seem powerless to control inflation. Fearful of raising interest rates too far, they issue hollow calls for wage restraint. No wonder Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, admitted to MPs recently that “It’s a very, very difficult place for us to be in.”
Nowhere to hide?
May 2022: So far this year, the prices of almost all conventional assets are down. Supposedly diversified portfolios have turned out to be anything but. To preserve their capital, investors will require a new approach to constructing portfolios - flexible, adaptable, robust, and responsive.
Bonds behaving badly
April 2022: Traditional balanced portfolios rely on equities and bonds fulfilling their roles – equities for good times, bonds to cushion the bad. But after a torrid three months for markets, investors are being forced to tear up the rulebook.
Staying power versus paying power
March 2022: Central bankers tell us the current burst of inflation will be transitory and workers will not mind the temporary squeeze on their living standards. In today’s full employment economy, this is not convincing. The implied policy response is flawed, potentially even reckless.
Out of the frying pan into the fire?
February 2022: A bubble in profitless tech and so called ‘meme’ stocks may be bursting in front of our eyes. But so far investors still think there is safety to be found in the last decade’s big winners, whatever their valuation. This risks confusing size and past success with safety.
What tightening? You’ve never had it so easy
January 2022: Money has never been so easy. As central banks step up their efforts to tame inflation, conditions could be about to get significantly trickier for investors and their portfolios.
A Ruffer Christmas Scrooge?
December 2021: At Ruffer we’re used to being accused of seeing the glass ‘half empty’ rather than ‘half full’. It’s not that we’re inherently pessimistic, but our job is to protect our investors’ capital against whatever might go wrong in markets. So naturally we tend to focus more on the risks than the opportunities. Or as Jonathan Ruffer might put it – to see the mousetrap clearer than the cheese.
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London
Ruffer LLP
80 Victoria Street
London SW1E 5JL
Paris
Ruffer S.A.
103 boulevard Haussmann
75008 Paris, France
New York
Ruffer LLC
300 Park Avenue
New York NY 10022
Edinburgh
Ruffer LLP
31 Charlotte Square
Edinburgh EH2 4ET