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Something always breaks

Episode 17

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Jos North
Head of UK Institutional & Wholesale
Rory McIvor
Director – Markets & Communications

After a strong start to the year, markets were destabilised by a shift in liquidity dynamics in March. Central banks now face a reckoning. Their choice is simple – inflation stability or financial stability – but it isn’t easy.

Investment Director Jos North joins Rory McIvor to discuss how recent developments fit into Ruffer’s investment thinking and what is needed to protect investors’ capital at this critical juncture in markets.

 

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Investment Review
April 2023: Portfolios have been alert to the dangers of a liquidity crisis for some time. Now that it has arrived, our task is to analyse how events are likely to play out. Certainly, it doesn’t appear to be a repeat of 2008. It isn’t quite like 1929 either. Reaching for either of those investor playbooks would be a mistake. But, as Jonathan Ruffer notes in his latest quarterly review, past circumstances can be instructive.
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Hemispheres of Influence
An epic bull market in magical thinking has dominated the world in recent years. Now, real world tectonic shifts are driving us into a more inflation-prone and volatile regime. But it’s our divided brains and their relationship with technology which may hold the key to navigating the risks and opportunities of this new era.
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Ruffer performance to 31 Mar %
2019 -1.6 | 2020 5.6 | 2021 23.3 | 2022 5.6 | 2023 -0.5

Sources: Factset, Bloomberg

All mentions of Ruffer performance refer to Ruffer’s representative portfolio, which shows the performance of an unconstrained, segregated portfolio of £1 million set up in 1995, and follows Ruffer’s investment approach.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income derived therefrom can decrease as well as increase and you may not get back the full amount originally invested. Ruffer performance is shown after deduction of all fees and management charges, and on the basis of income being reinvested. The value of overseas investments will be influenced by the rate of exchange.

The views expressed in this podcast are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment or financial instrument, including interests in any of Ruffer’s funds. The information contained in the podcast is fact based and does not constitute investment research, investment advice or a personal recommendation, and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. This podcast does not take account of any potential investor’s investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation. This podcast reflects Ruffer’s opinions at the date of publication only, the opinions are subject to change without notice and Ruffer shall bear no responsibility for the opinions offered. This financial promotion is issued by Ruffer LLP. Read the full disclaimer.

Investment Review
April 2024: Jonathan Ruffer discusses the stock market’s seemingly invincible summer. This has created distortions in both debt and equity markets, and with them, opportunities to benefit from a change in the season.
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Something new under the sun
Several new features of the global financial system have increased both the risk of a market crisis and its likely severity.
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Out of sight, out of mind
April 2024: Markets today are very different to the pre-2008 era. But has systemic risk been removed or relocated?
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London
Ruffer LLP
80 Victoria Street
London SW1E 5JL
Paris
Ruffer S.A.
103 boulevard Haussmann
75008 Paris, France
New York
Ruffer LLC
300 Park Avenue
New York NY 10022
Edinburgh
Ruffer LLP
31 Charlotte Square
Edinburgh EH2 4ET