All-weather investing

Seeking good positive returns.

Come rain or shine.

Ruffer provides investment management services for institutions, pension funds, charities, financial planners and individual investors.
Ruffer LLP
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London
80 Victoria Street
London SW1E 5JL
Edinburgh
31 Charlotte Square
Edinburgh EH2 4ET
Paris
103 boulevard Haussmann
75008 Paris, France

The Green Line

A monthly chart, plus a short commentary
Nowhere to hide?
May 2022: So far this year, the prices of almost all conventional assets are down. Supposedly diversified portfolios have turned out to be anything but. To preserve their capital, investors will require a new approach to constructing portfolios - flexible, adaptable, robust, and responsive.
Bonds behaving badly
April 2022: Traditional balanced portfolios rely on equities and bonds fulfilling their roles – equities for good times, bonds to cushion the bad. But after a torrid three months for markets, investors are being forced to tear up the rulebook.
Staying power versus paying power
March 2022: Central bankers tell us the current burst of inflation will be transitory and workers will not mind the temporary squeeze on their living standards. In today’s full employment economy, this is not convincing. The implied policy response is flawed, potentially even reckless.
Out of the frying pan into the fire?
February 2022: A bubble in profitless tech and so called ‘meme’ stocks may be bursting in front of our eyes. But so far investors still think there is safety to be found in the last decade’s big winners, whatever their valuation. This risks confusing size and past success with safety.
What tightening? You’ve never had it so easy
January 2022: Money has never been so easy. As central banks step up their efforts to tame inflation, conditions could be about to get significantly trickier for investors and their portfolios.
A Ruffer Christmas Scrooge?
December 2021: At Ruffer we’re used to being accused of seeing the glass ‘half empty’ rather than ‘half full’. It’s not that we’re inherently pessimistic, but our job is to protect our investors’ capital against whatever might go wrong in markets. So naturally we tend to focus more on the risks than the opportunities. Or as Jonathan Ruffer might put it – to see the mousetrap clearer than the cheese.
Not all inflationistas wear flares
November 2021: Investors have divided into two camps. Those who believe inflation will subside and the rise in prices will prove temporary. And others who fear we are entering a period of high sustained inflation reminiscent of the 1970s. We consider both scenarios unlikely.
Investing in big oil
October 2021: The energy sector has fallen from 16% of the S&P 500 just 13 years ago, to below 3% as of today. And yet the integrated oil majors make up more than 6% of Ruffer portfolios. We often receive questions from clients about the rationale and justification for these investments.
Going, going, gone!
September 2021: What can they see that we can’t? Private equity bids for UK companies are soaring, while at the same time the UK stock market languishes at valuations well below US peers.
Engagement over exclusion
August 2021: Engaging with companies to improve their climate policies is not only beneficial to the environment, but also to investors. Hermione Davies explains how our engagement with ArcelorMittal has led to significant positive outcomes.
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London
80 Victoria Street
London SW1E 5JL
Edinburgh
31 Charlotte Square
Edinburgh EH2 4ET
Paris
103 boulevard Haussmann
75008 Paris, France