All-weather investing

Seeking consistent positive returns.

Come rain or shine.

Ruffer provides investment management services for institutions, pension funds, charities, financial planners and individual investors.
All-weather investing
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London
80 Victoria Street
London SW1E 5JL
Edinburgh
31 Charlotte Square
Edinburgh EH2 4ET
Paris
103 boulevard Haussmann
75008 Paris, France

The Green Line

A monthly chart, plus a short commentary
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St Jay and the inflation dragon
February 2024: With markets pricing in multiple rate cuts for 2024, investors appear content that inflation is yesterday’s problem. But if inflation proves stickier than forecast and central banks are unable to grant the market the rate cuts it’s expecting, risk assets could be vulnerable.
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A golden ticket?
January 2024: 2022 revealed the importance of asset correlations for investors trying to build resilient portfolios. When both equities and bonds fell together there were few places to hide. But as markets cheered falling inflation last year, that crucial lesson has become all too easily forgotten. This month’s Green Line looks at why inflation volatility matters most in this new investment regime and suggests investors may just have been offered a golden ticket out of trouble.
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A paper tiger after all?
December 2023: Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell is seeking to emulate his predecessor Paul Volcker in bringing runaway inflation back under control. So far, markets have cheered his progress. Volcker was able to tighten policy - and keep it tight – because the politics of the day allowed for it. But as Economist Jamie Dannhauser points out, this Fed may not have those same favourable political winds in its sails. The real challenge for the Federal Reserve, may still be to come.
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So you want stock TIPS?
November 2023: After a bond market rout commensurate with the steepest and fastest rate hiking cycle in a generation, is there now a case for adding fixed income into portfolios? Perhaps - there might even be two. In this month’s green line, Fund Manager Duncan MacInnes looks at the cyclical and structural cases for inflation-linked bonds.
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It's a very, very mad world
October 2023: Some extraordinary dynamics have emerged in markets in 2023. None more startling than the breakdown of the typical relationship between bond yields and equity valuations – especially mega-cap tech stocks. So far, it’s been bond investors who have endured the pain of rising real yields. But is an equity market repricing – reflective of stickier inflation and ‘higher for longer’ rates – the shoe that’s yet to drop?
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A starter for yen
September 2023: The Bank of Japan has been marching to a different beat to other central banks. While the Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of England hurried to ramp up rates in a battle against inflation, a deflationary mist lingered over Japan. Until now…
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Is discretion the better part of valour?
June 2023: Whilst it’s been a tough start to the year for cautious investors, equity valuations – particularly in the US – suggest the rally could run out of steam, and cash now offers a tempting alternative. Moreover, with inflation stubbornly high, central bankers will be reluctant to intervene if markets encounter turbulence. Against this backdrop, we think caution is still justified.
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A few bad apples?
May 2023: Markets have breathed a sigh of relief as turmoil in the US banking sector appears to have been contained. But a string of bank failures may merely be a symptom of wider, more troubling dynamics at hand in financial markets. Economist Jamie Dannhauser discusses the fragility of the current investment landscape and explains why our conviction of an impending liquidation event in markets is growing stronger.
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Blood on the tracks
April 2023: Today's policymakers face an impossible but unavoidable choice – they must send the train down one track or the other. Either they let inflation gather steam or they pull the proverbial lever and risk a financial system calamity. There is no third way.
A Hemingway moment for markets?
March 2023: As the sun now sets on 2023’s first earnings season, we fear equity markets are heading for a Hemingway moment. Jasmine Yeo explores why in our latest Green Line.
London
80 Victoria Street
London SW1E 5JL
Edinburgh
31 Charlotte Square
Edinburgh EH2 4ET
Paris
103 boulevard Haussmann
75008 Paris, France