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All-weather investing

Seeking consistent positive returns.

Come rain or shine.

Ruffer provides investment management services for institutions, pension funds, charities, financial planners and individual investors.
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London
Ruffer LLP
80 Victoria Street
London SW1E 5JL
Paris
Ruffer S.A.
103 boulevard Haussmann
75008 Paris, France
New York
Ruffer LLC
300 Park Avenue
New York NY 10022
Edinburgh
Ruffer LLP
31 Charlotte Square
Edinburgh EH2 4ET

DC pension schemes

Time to dance to a different tune?

Achieving positive returns in a defined contribution (DC) investment portfolio, whatever happens in financial markets, means finding and owning assets which respond differently to changes in the investment environment. Crucially, it also means owning assets which respond differently to each other.

Whereas conventional bonds formerly protected clients against falls in equity markets, ankle-high interest rates have suppressed their protective power. We witnessed this recently in March 2020, September 2021, and April 2022, when equity and bond markets fell in tandem.

This year, other traditional ‘safe havens’ have also failed to provide the shelter DC investors might have expected. The yen has suffered even as equity markets sold off. And gold, despite inflation reaching 40 year highs, has been lacklustre.

All asset classes have been dancing to the same tune. And so far this year, it has been a dreary melody.

We’ve been wary of the absence of available offsets for some time. This led us to develop more creative protection strategies, and to invest in more unconventional assets.

In practice, this has meant incorporating derivative strategies into the portfolio. We seek protection that is both effective and attractively valued – instruments which offer convex pay offs.

All asset classes have been dancing to the same tune. And so far this year, it has been a dreary melody.

One example of this uncorrelated investment protection is our use of payer swaptions. We retain conviction in the power of inflation-linked bonds to retain value in an environment of financial repression. But these instruments rise materially only when there is a shift in inflation expectations – until then, the inflation-linked bonds carry significant interest-risk (as with conventional bonds). As central banks have embarked on their hiking cycle, payer swaptions have worked to offset the falls in fixed income and removed the need for us to perfectly time an exit, and re-entry, into the asset class.

Opportunistically, credit default swaps enable us to take tactical and targeted short positions within credit markets. As liquidity is sucked out of financial markets, these instruments provide a rare and unique means to make material returns in an environment in which the vast majority of assets could buckle under selling pressure.

At Ruffer, we have a strategy with the means and licence to invest in all corners of the investment universe. That means we can find uncorrelated assets, and ultimately, deliver uncorrelated returns.

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Piers Wheeler
Director – Institutional
Developing and executing asset management strategy for capital raising and strategic relationship management. Coverage includes EMEA, Asia and Australia. Piers joined Ruffer in 2021, having previously worked with asset management firms including Eastspring, AMP Capital and LEK as a strategic consultant. He holds a MA from the Bayes Business School and a BA (Hons) from the University of Oxford.
Annabel Paterson
Annabel Paterson
Senior Associate – Institutional
Joined Ruffer in 2021, having graduated with a first class honours degree in land economics from the University of Cambridge. After two years working with the UK Private Wealth team and completing her IMC and CFA Level I qualifications, she now supports Ruffer’s global business development and client servicing efforts.

Sources: Ruffer, Bloomberg. Chart: Proportion of variation explained by first two principal components. 45 years of weekly data across US, UK, Germany, Japan and EM equities, dollar index, GBP, EUR, JPY, AUD, oil, gold, commodities index, US and UK 10y yields. Data to April 2022

The views expressed in this article are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment or financial instrument, including interests in any of Ruffer’s funds. The information contained in the article is fact based and does not constitute investment research, investment advice or a personal recommendation, and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities are included for the purposes of illustration only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities. This document does not take account of any potential investor’s investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation. This document reflects Ruffer’s opinions at the date of publication only, the opinions are subject to change without notice and Ruffer shall bear no responsibility for the opinions offered. Read the full disclaimer.

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London
Ruffer LLP
80 Victoria Street
London SW1E 5JL
Paris
Ruffer S.A.
103 boulevard Haussmann
75008 Paris, France
New York
Ruffer LLC
300 Park Avenue
New York NY 10022
Edinburgh
Ruffer LLP
31 Charlotte Square
Edinburgh EH2 4ET