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Duncan MacInnes

Fund Manager
Joined Ruffer in 2012. He graduated from the University of Glasgow School of Law in 2007 and spent four years working at Barclays in Glasgow, London and Singapore. He is a CFA charterholder and co-manager of two of Ruffer's flagship funds.
Articles by Duncan
Digital gold or physical bitcoin?
March 2024: With bitcoin and equity markets breaking through all-time highs, there can be no mistaking investors bullishness so far this year. But it isn’t only typical ‘risk assets’ climbing higher.
Back to the future
Last year, fortune favoured the brave investor, one who looked through inflation and policy uncertainty and loaded up on mega-cap tech stocks. We review Ruffer’s 2023 performance, and explain why markets may have to look further back than last year to see what might come next.
So you want stock TIPS?
November 2023: After a bond market rout commensurate with the steepest and fastest rate hiking cycle in a generation, is there now a case for adding fixed income into portfolios? Perhaps - there might even be two. In this month’s green line, Fund Manager Duncan MacInnes looks at the cyclical and structural cases for inflation-linked bonds.
Blood on the tracks
April 2023: Today's policymakers face an impossible but unavoidable choice – they must send the train down one track or the other. Either they let inflation gather steam or they pull the proverbial lever and risk a financial system calamity. There is no third way.
The dangers of dancing
In the March edition of Duncan MacInnes' Citywire column, he discusses how Investors are being lured back onto the dance floor by the siren song of Fomo, just when the music could be about to stop.
Are we there yet?
Twelve months ago, we warned there would be turbulence ahead. Since then we have seen double-digit inflation, one of the fastest rate-hiking cycles in modern history and ‘defensive’ portfolios lose 20% of their value. Battle worn investors are hoping for respite, but is the worst behind us? In this webinar we discuss the challenges and opportunities still to come in the journey through a much-changed market landscape.
The bull market in belief
December 2022: With equity valuations having fallen from their highs, investors are eyeing up stocks once again. Here, Duncan MacInnes discusses why another market rally will rely more on fantasy and belief than on healthy corporate earnings.
The case for cash
Holding cash is not usually considered a courageous move by active investors. But here, Duncan MacInnes suggests that at times, a high cash allocation is in fact an act of bravery. And now, more than ever, breaking convention may be crucial for investors.
Cash is trash, or is it?
In the October edition of Duncan MacInnes' Citywire column, he explains why Ruffer is sitting on the highest cash weighting in its history.
What if?
Our approach to building portfolios favours being roughly right, as opposed to precisely wrong. The portfolio is designed to preserve capital across a range of economic and market outcomes. But naturally, we consider some outcomes more likely than others. At this critical juncture in markets, Duncan MacInnes offers an exercise in imagination - what if we are wrong? Fast forward a year from now, what would need to happen in the world to prove our concerns or hopes, misguided or misplaced?
What if we are wrong?
In the July edition of his Citywire column, Duncan MacInnes asks what would have to happen for us to look back in a year to find the post-pandemic bull market had suffered only a blip and inflation was just transitory?