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Led by the Fed

Episode 16

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Fiona Ker
Fund Manager
Rory McIvor
Director – Markets & Communications

Of the many storylines to unfold in 2022, only one really mattered to investors – rising interest rates and falling asset prices. The chief protagonist in this tale – the Federal Reserve - conducted one of the fastest and steepest rate hiking cycles in financial history. But how much further do they need to go?

Fiona Ker discusses the unenviable choices facing central bankers and explains why monetary policy will continue to dominate the narrative in the next chapter in markets.

 

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The bull market in belief
December 2022: With equity valuations having fallen from their highs, investors are eyeing up stocks once again. Here, Duncan MacInnes discusses why another market rally will rely more on fantasy and belief than on healthy corporate earnings.
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2022 Q3 Investment Review
October 2022: In his latest quarterly review, Jonathan Ruffer reflects on the possibility of an imminent liquidity crisis in markets and looks at why even the safest assets might not prove very safe at all.
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Ruffer round up Q3 22
October 2022: Investment Manager Jasmine Yeo joins Rory McIvor to review a quarter of dizzying market activity. They discuss the volatility of UK gilts over recent weeks, consider the potential for a liquidation event in asset markets and provide a portfolio update.
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Ruffer performance to 31 Dec %
2018 -5.8 | 2019 7.0 | 2020 16.7 | 2021 8.2 | 2022 5.7

Sources: Factset, Bloomberg

All mentions of Ruffer performance refer to Ruffer’s representative portfolio, which shows the performance of an unconstrained, segregated portfolio of £1 million set up in 1995, and follows Ruffer’s investment approach.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income derived therefrom can decrease as well as increase and you may not get back the full amount originally invested. Ruffer performance is shown after deduction of all fees and management charges, and on the basis of income being reinvested. The value of overseas investments will be influenced by the rate of exchange.

The views expressed in this podcast are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment or financial instrument, including interests in any of Ruffer’s funds. The information contained in the podcast is fact based and does not constitute investment research, investment advice or a personal recommendation, and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. This podcast does not take account of any potential investor’s investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation. This podcast reflects Ruffer’s opinions at the date of publication only, the opinions are subject to change without notice and Ruffer shall bear no responsibility for the opinions offered. Read the full disclaimer.

Minds over matter
Whilst technology has transformed stock markets over the centuries, they are underpinned by human traits like fear and greed, which remain unaltered. But one key recent change has been to markets’ purpose, and this risks severe instability.
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Investment Review
April 2024: Jonathan Ruffer discusses the stock market’s seemingly invincible summer. This has created distortions in both debt and equity markets, and with them, opportunities to benefit from a change in the season.
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Out of sight, out of mind
April 2024: Markets today are very different to the pre-2008 era. But has systemic risk been removed or relocated?
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London
Ruffer LLP
80 Victoria Street
London SW1E 5JL
Paris
Ruffer S.A.
103 boulevard Haussmann
75008 Paris, France
New York
Ruffer LLC
300 Park Avenue
New York NY 10022
Edinburgh
Ruffer LLP
31 Charlotte Square
Edinburgh EH2 4ET