https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking en Just bluster? Ideas, thoughts and comments https://www.ruffer.co.uk/-/media/ruffer-website/images/illustrations/thinking.gif https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2025-stewardship-report Our 2025 report outlines Ruffer's key stewardship activities and shows how our approach aligns with both the definition and the spirit of stewardship within the code. Sunday, 26 April 2026 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2026-04-merryn-talks-money Fund Manager Alexander Chartres speaks to Bloomberg’s Merryn Somerset Webb about investing in a world marked by receding US dominance and a more inflation-prone, shock-driven global economy. Sunday, 19 April 2026 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2026-04-the-green-line Apr 2026: With oil prices soaring, what will the impact on the global economy be? And how will policymakers react? We make the case for a stagflationary shock, but not all economies will be affected equally. Wednesday, 15 April 2026 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2026-04-money-makers Editor Jonathan Davis speaks to Fund Manager Jasmine Yeo and Charlie Morris, founder of Bytetree Research. Wednesday, 15 April 2026 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2026-04-update Fund Manager Fiona Ker and Investment Specialist Gemma Cairns-Smith will discuss the most pressing market themes so far this year, and how the Ruffer strategy is positioned to navigate them Tuesday, 14 April 2026 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2026-q1-ri-report This quarter we turned our stewardship tool on UK homebuilders — and found an industry navigating real pressures, with wide variation in how well prepared companies actually are. Tuesday, 07 April 2026 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2026-03-ruffer-review-2026 At a time of increasing political, economic and market disequilibrium, the Ruffer Review 2026 assesses a broad range of risks – and unearths some underappreciated opportunities. Thursday, 26 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2026-03-let-them-have-cake President Trump faces an affordability paradox, and his attempts to solve it before the mid-terms are likely to cause severe political, economic, market and inflation volatility. Wednesday, 25 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2026-03-ac-in-conversation Fund Manager Alexander Chartres sits down with Investment Specialist Gemma Cairns-Smith to discuss the challenges facing investors in a more fractured global landscape. They cover the journey to this more multipolar and harder‑edged world order, its new power dynamics, and the renewed importance of real assets. They also discuss the skills investors need to survive in this hard new world. Wednesday, 25 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2026-03-iliads-and-odysseys We have entered a new era, where hard power rules. Safely navigating this New World Disorder will require the agile intelligence of Odysseus. Tuesday, 24 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2026-04-mb-in-conversation What really drives the economic cycle? It’s not the total amount of debt – it’s the rate of change of new borrowing. Investment Specialist Gemma Cairns-Smith sits down with Ruffer’s Head of Macro Strategy Michael Biggs to explore his research into the credit impulse — the change in new borrowing that drives economic activity. Monday, 23 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2026-03-the-road-to-prosperity While many investors are focused on high public-sector debt levels, few appreciate how increased new borrowing by the private sector could spur GDP growth and support asset prices. Sunday, 22 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2026-04-cb-in-conversation In this thought‑provoking conversation, Ruffer Chief Executive Chris Bacon discusses the idea of Risk backwards: that comfort, conformity and ‘blanding’ can create the illusion of safety while increasing vulnerability. Wednesday, 18 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/fund-reports/interim-report 31 December 2025 (unaudited) Wednesday, 18 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2026-03-risk-backwards Five lessons from the first five decades of life reveal how we often get risk wrong. Resisting the lure of comfort and conformity is more important than ever. Tuesday, 17 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2026-03-shadow-banking Guest contributor Ben Hunt looks at the mechanics of the current boom in private credit and explains why he thinks it may end in a major bust. Tuesday, 17 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2026-04-ac-in-conversation Fund Manager Alexander Chartres sits down with Investment Specialist Gemma Cairns-Smith to discuss the challenges facing investors in a more fractured global landscape. They cover the journey to this more multipolar and harder‑edged world order, its new power dynamics, and the renewed importance of real assets. They also discuss the skills investors need to survive in this hard new world. Read Alexander’s article in The Ruffer Review 2026 ruffer.co.uk/rufferreview Tuesday, 17 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2026-03-echoes-of-87 Two crises nearly 40 years apart – the first in equities, the second in crypto – display stark similarities. Learning the lessons of these meltdowns could help to build more resilience in both markets. Monday, 16 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2026-03-crude-awakenings The shale revolution transformed US oil and gas output, profoundly altering the global energy balance. If the shale boom is now over, that will have enormous geopolitical and economic consequences. Monday, 16 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2026-03-narratives-and-the-shifting-market-mindset Stories are increasingly driving markets, outweighing the fundamentals. We analyse how this dynamic works – and how to avoid getting caught in the downdraft. Monday, 16 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2026-04-mb-in-conversation What really drives the economic cycle? It’s not the total amount of debt – it’s the rate of change of new borrowing. Investment Specialist Gemma Cairns-Smith sits down with Ruffer’s Head of Macro Strategy Michael Biggs to explore his research into the credit impulse — the change in new borrowing that drives economic activity. Monday, 16 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2026-03-reabsorbing-esg ESG analysis should never have become a separate discipline. We believe bringing its component parts back into fundamental research should help to deliver sustainable value creation. Sunday, 15 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2026-03-inside-the-cult-of-equities Equities’ popularity has grown in recent years, especially in the US. Their current status is deserved – but we need to remember some important lessons from financial history. Sunday, 15 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2026-03-remembering-the-forgotten-man Populism feels alien but is in fact nothing new. We explore three previous populist episodes in the US to help us better understand the implications for Western governments today. Sunday, 15 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2026-04-cb-in-conversation In this thought‑provoking conversation, Ruffer Chief Executive Chris Bacon discusses the idea of Risk backwards: that comfort, conformity and ‘blanding’ can create the illusion of safety while increasing vulnerability. Sunday, 15 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2026-03-whits-fur-yell-no-go-by-ye A diverse set of skills and experience can help firms to avoid groupthink. Read how training and then working as an opera singer has helped one of our fund managers. Saturday, 14 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2026-03-living-in-von-neumanns-shadow John von Neumann made major contributions to the development of atomic weapons and AI. Understanding his thinking about these existential threats is of particular relevance today. Saturday, 14 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2026-03-six-mindsets-for-greatness Guest contributor Jake Humphrey talks about Game Plan, which uses lessons from his High Performance Podcast to teach young people the secrets behind high achievers’ success. Friday, 13 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2026-03-market-misc China’s investment in higher education and STEM subjects has caused patent applications to skyrocket. It’s all part of Beijing’s plan to overtake the West in innovation. Friday, 13 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2026-03-the-green-line Mar 2026: Japan’s markets are gaining momentum thanks to political stability, pro-growth fiscal policy and corporate reforms, strengthening investors’ confidence and signalling renewed potential for sustained economic growth. Thursday, 12 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2026-04-ii-buying-british Fund Manager Jasmine Yeo joins Victoria Scholar and James Harries of STS Global Income & Growth Trust to assess the outlook for the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 and whether UK markets could deliver another resilient year. Monday, 09 March 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2026-02-the-green-line Feb 2026: Ahead of the mid-terms, can President Trump raise households’ morale without rocking markets? Thursday, 12 February 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/fund-reports/ric-imyer For the period ended 31 December 2025 (unaudited) Monday, 26 January 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2026-01-the-green-line Jan 2026: Oil prices have hit multi-decade lows against gold. Could current weakness present a compelling contrarian opportunity? Thursday, 15 January 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2026-01-update Fund Managers Fiona Ker and Alexander Chartres discuss our latest thinking on inflation, geopolitics, and equity market risks and opportunities and how the Ruffer strategy is positioned to navigate them. Thursday, 15 January 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2025-q4-ri-report What happens to responsible investing when the most powerful man in the world wages war against it? This quarter’s report examines ESG investing in the age of retrenchment. Monday, 05 January 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2025-q4-investment-review January 2026: Jonathan Ruffer reflects on over 30 years in investment management and warns that today’s speculative market exuberance will eventually face a reckoning. Friday, 02 January 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2025-q4-investment-review January 2026: Jonathan Ruffer reflects on over 30 years in investment management and warns that today’s speculative market exuberance will eventually face a reckoning. Friday, 02 January 2026 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2026-04-ii-risk-headache Fund Manager Ian Rees speaks to Interactive Investor about AI development, index funds versus ETFs and how Ruffer’s portfolio fared earlier this year when stock market volatility picked up. Friday, 12 December 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2025-12-the-green-line Dec 2025: Prediction markets are entering the financial mainstream, offering crowd-sourced forecasts on real world events. But could they end up adding yet more risk to the system? Thursday, 11 December 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2025-12-how-ruffer-can-protect With the return of inflation ripping up the asset allocation rule book, investors need a new approach to protect their wealth – while keeping their eyes open to growth opportunities. Wednesday, 03 December 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2025-11-the-green-line Nov 2025: After years of underperformance compared to US rivals, China’s tech shares are showing signs of life. This month’s chart tracks their comeback, and looks at the themes behind the move Thursday, 13 November 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2025-10-the-green-line Oct 2025: With the UK Budget approaching, all eyes are on the deteriorating public finances. But private sector balance sheets are in good shape – and could drive GDP growth. Wednesday, 15 October 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2025-10-update Fund Managers Ian Rees and Jasmine Yeo review Ruffer’s year-to-date performance, discuss recent portfolio changes and outline how the portfolio is positioned for the key risks and opportunities ahead. Tuesday, 14 October 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2025-q3-ri-report In our latest report, we look at two animals at opposite extremes of the food chain and climatic conditions. Both are keystone species – that is, disproportionately important to the health of their entire ecosystem. Tuesday, 07 October 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2025-q3-investment-review October 2025: After fifty years of almost uninterrupted bull markets, Jonathan Ruffer examines whether we’re approaching a turning point. Tuesday, 30 September 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2025-q3-investment-review October 2025: After fifty years of almost uninterrupted bull markets, Jonathan Ruffer examines whether we’re approaching a turning point. Tuesday, 30 September 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/fund-reports/annual-report 30 June 2025 (full version) audited Tuesday, 30 September 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/from-the-firm/founder-retires “The timing of such a decision is never an easy one, not least because it raises the obvious question – why? Why now? The company is in cracking shape, and that is reason enough.” Monday, 29 September 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2025-09-the-green-line Sep 2025: This month’s Green Line explores why investments that gain exposure to credit spreads can be a useful complement to equity market protections. Wednesday, 10 September 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2025-07-update Fund Manager Fiona Ker and Investment Specialist Gemma Cairns-Smith share Ruffer’s latest views on global markets, explain how we are positioning portfolios to navigate these dynamics, and outline where we see the greatest risks and opportunities ahead. Tuesday, 15 July 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2025-07-the-green-line Jul 2025: US tariffs cut Chinese exports to America by a third, but a large proportion seems to have been rerouted through Southeast Asia, suggesting China's economy may prove stronger than expected. Wednesday, 09 July 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2025-q2-investment-review July 2025: Markets hit record highs despite wars, tariffs, and towering debt. Jonathan Ruffer explores why today’s ‘Looney Tune’ valuations persist, examines generational investment divides, and explains how Ruffer’s all-weather approach is well placed to navigate this new era. Tuesday, 01 July 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2025-q2-investment-review July 2025: Markets hit record highs despite wars, tariffs, and towering debt. Jonathan Ruffer explores why today’s ‘Looney Tune’ valuations persist, examines generational investment divides, and explains how Ruffer’s all-weather approach is well placed to navigate this new era. Tuesday, 01 July 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2025-q2-ri-report In our latest report, we focus on FMC, an agricultural science company specialising in crop protection technologies, and our long-running engagement with ArcelorMittal. We also include the usual round up of our stewardship activities this quarter. Tuesday, 01 July 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/from-the-firm/safety-online To help you keep your email account and Ruffer online account safe, our Technology team has put together a list of suspicious behaviour to look out for and ways to help you protect your accounts. Tuesday, 01 July 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2025-tcfd-report Our fifth annual TCFD Report looks at Ruffer’s alignment with the TCFD recommendations, covering governance, strategy, risk and targets. Tuesday, 24 June 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2025-06-the-green-line Jun 2025: The Taiwan dollar’s surge in early May highlighted the risk for global investors from an unwinding of the massive unhedged exposures to US assets built up over recent years in many countries. Wednesday, 11 June 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2025-05-investors-chronicle Fund Manager Jasmine Yeo talks to Investors’ Chronicle about bonds, commodities and the end of US exceptionalism. Wednesday, 14 May 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2025-05-the-green-line May 2025: Gold miners are enjoying record profit margins as prices soar. Could they outshine bullion in portfolios as Trump’s policies continue to drive gold higher? Wednesday, 07 May 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2024-stewardship-report Our 2024 report outlines Ruffer’s key stewardship activities, enhancements to our fossil fuel policy and our sustainability performance ranking model. Sunday, 27 April 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2025-04-update Political and technological upheaval is injecting significant volatility into global markets. We believe this is set to continue as the pervasive faith in US exceptionalism is undermined. Monday, 14 April 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/ri-at-ruffer An overview of our approach to responsible investment Sunday, 06 April 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2025-04-the-green-line April 2025: Long-awaited shifts in Germany and China are likely to reinforce the equity market rotation away from the US. Thursday, 03 April 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2025-q1-ri-report Our latest report introduces our new measure for gauging the long-term sustainability of companies’ business models. We also have the usual round up our stewardship activities during the quarter. Tuesday, 01 April 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2025-q1-investment-review April 2025: Equities are at maximum valuations, investors are at peak investedness, and now a regime change which markets have not yet digested. Jonathan Ruffer asks if this is one of the rare occasions when a market crisis not only foretells but contributes to the economic hardship to come. Monday, 31 March 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2025-q1-investment-review April 2025: Equities are at maximum valuations, investors are at peak investedness, and now a regime change which markets have not yet digested. Jonathan Ruffer asks if this is one of the rare occasions when a market crisis not only foretells but contributes to the economic hardship to come. Monday, 31 March 2025 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2025-03-ruffer-review-2025 The Ruffer Review 2025 offers evaluations of current market and economic conditions, assessments of possible futures and some pertinent lessons from history. Thursday, 20 March 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2025-03-the-anti-singularity-machine Optimism about superintelligence is fuelling market behaviour which looks far from intelligent, driving valuations far from the fundamentals. When the correction comes, we expect significant market fallout – and opportunities. Wednesday, 19 March 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2025-03-alpha-at-omega We are living through revolutions in geopolitics and economics (think tech). To exploit the resulting opportunities, a further revolution will be needed: in portfolio management. It’s all to play for. Tuesday, 18 March 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2025-03-back-to-the-future Whilst the impact of AI is likely to be deflationary in the very long term, existing economic imbalances and political realities suggest we will first suffer an era of higher inflation and volatility. Tuesday, 18 March 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2025-03-contrarian Our Chairman reflects on his six decades of investing and shares some of the main lessons he’s learnt. Tuesday, 18 March 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2025-03-food-security Global food security is under increasing threat from climate change and geopolitical tensions. We assess some of the potential solutions, from emerging technologies and sustainable farming practices. Tuesday, 18 March 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2025-03-gold-intentions Winston Churchill's 1925 decision to rejoin the gold standard led to a spectacular boom and bust – and arguably the Second World War. The real question it poses for us: is sound money simply incompatible with full franchise democracy? Tuesday, 18 March 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2025-03-poetical-science Ada Lovelace was the Countess who counted – a visionary computing pioneer who transcended the gender norms of the Victorian era. Tuesday, 18 March 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2025-03-power-predicament Caught between US protectionism and Chinese mercantilism and now bereft of cheap Russian energy, the EU faces an existential question: how to secure its strategic autonomy and future competitiveness. Tuesday, 18 March 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2025-03-spectres-of-protectionism Economists use the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act as a case study for protectionism’s adverse impacts. Yet the geopolitical consequences were far more profound, damaging America’s allies and provoking its enemies. Tuesday, 18 March 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2025-03-the-red-bull-market The macro and market starting points for Donald Trump’s second presidency are very different from his first. Yet he is pursuing the same objectives with greater vigour. The upshot is likely to be destabilising for markets and the global economy. Tuesday, 18 March 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2025-03-thousand-year Merlin Hanbury-Tenison is on a mission to restore Britain's temperate rainforests, for the health of mankind and the planet. Tuesday, 18 March 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2025-03-time-up-for-traditional-asset-allocation We believe the global economy has entered a new era of higher and more volatile inflation. To navigate it, investors will need to allocate to a broader range of assets. And then manage them actively. Tuesday, 18 March 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2025-03-market-misc Is Gen Z really spendthrift and impulsive? And can you stop murders by simply locking up 2% of the population? We see how the data stacks up. Monday, 17 March 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2025-03-insightful-investor Jonathan Ruffer joins Alex Shahidi on Insightful Investor to discuss his insights on financial market history and his market outlook. Tuesday, 11 March 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2025-03-the-green-line March 2025: Even before any impact from Trump’s tariffs, US CPI inflation surged in January, taking it further away from the 2% target it hasn’t hit for four years. Thursday, 06 March 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2025-02-the-green-line February 2025: Strong gains in equity markets are bolstering US consumer optimism. Yet, with asset valuations close to historical highs and return expectations looking unrealistic, this virtuous cycle could rapidly turn vicious. Thursday, 13 February 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2025-01-ruffer-radio January 2025: Fund Manager, Steve Russell discusses the investment risks we see in 2025 – overvalued US markets, Trumps return to office, rising bond yields. Thursday, 16 January 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2025-01-the-green-line January 2025: After US equities’ strong gains over the past two years, we think the best opportunities for 2025 may lie in overlooked assets elsewhere in the world. Thursday, 16 January 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2025-01-r-star-wars Could today’s market optimism about inflation be misplaced? Oliver Shale warns we may be facing an ‘Empire Strikes Back’ moment, with a second wave of price rises on the horizon. Monday, 13 January 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2024-q4-ri-report Our latest report discusses engagement with the agriculture supply chain, and includes a round up of our stewardship activities during the quarter. Thursday, 09 January 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2025-01-update-pw Fund Manager Jasmine Yeo and Private Wealth Director Charles Lynne cover the most pressing and important questions from our clients and investors – on markets, the economic outlook and the Ruffer strategy. Thursday, 09 January 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2025-01-update-wholesale Thursday, 09 January 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2024-q4-investment-review January 2025: In his latest Investment Review, Jonathan Ruffer sees parallels between today’s Magnificent Seven and the Nifty Fifty stocks of 1970s America. Pay too much for quality, and you’ve made a bad investment. Thursday, 02 January 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2024-q4-investment-review January 2025: In his latest Investment Review, Jonathan Ruffer sees parallels between today’s Magnificent Seven and the Nifty Fifty stocks of 1970s America. Pay too much for quality, and you’ve made a bad investment. Thursday, 02 January 2025 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2024-12-the-green-line December 2024: Trump’s new administration faces a high-stakes showdown with bond vigilantes, threatening to shake global financial markets, raise borrowing costs and potentially trigger the first US fiscal crisis since the Civil War. Wednesday, 04 December 2024 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2024-11-the-green-line November 2024: China’s stocks have massively underperformed the US for decades, but rock-bottom valuations, government stimulus and depressed investor sentiment are creating an opportunity. Sometimes the best investments are when things go from awful to bad. Thursday, 14 November 2024 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/fund-reports/ric-fund-report Download the latest fund report Wednesday, 13 November 2024 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/from-the-firm/staying-protected Cybercrime is set to inflict a staggering $9.5 trillion in damage in 2024 as digital predators use increasingly devious tactics to target high net worth individuals. Defence strategies like multi-factor authentication can help keep you digitally secure. Monday, 04 November 2024 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/book-corner/your-last-gift Matthew Hutton’s guide to end-of-life planning addresses crucial but often overlooked aspects of estate planning. Through practical checklists and straightforward advice, the book aims to simplify this complex but necessary process to reduce future stress for loved ones. Thursday, 24 October 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2024-10-the-green-line October 2024: Declining car production reveals just how exposed German industry is to the new Cold War. The political and economic consequences for the EU will be profound. Wednesday, 16 October 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2024-q3-ri-report Our latest report focuses on three mainly climate-themed engagements. We also explain why CDP’s Non-Disclosure Campaign can provide invaluable data to help us analyse climate risks and opportunities. Sunday, 06 October 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2024-03-a-few-good-choices Isaac Newton said, “If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulder of giants.” At five foot one, my grandmother wasn’t a conventional giant. But she’s helped me see further, and better. And helped me in my own way to make better decisions. Wednesday, 02 October 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2024-q3-investment-review October 2024: For 30 years, Ruffer’s chief concern has been the preservation of clients’ money. In this quarter’s review, Jonathan Ruffer revisits the merits, and measures, of this aspiration in the context of today’s market environment. Monday, 30 September 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2024-q3-investment-review October 2024: For 30 years, Ruffer’s chief concern has been the preservation of clients’ money. In this quarter’s review, Jonathan Ruffer revisits the merits, and measures, of this aspiration in the context of today’s market environment. Monday, 30 September 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2024-03-market-miscellany We explore the limitations of AI, the difficulty of assessing probabilities, ways to tackle youth unemployment and the blurring of the line between purchases and investments. Saturday, 28 September 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2024-09-ruffer-radio September 2024: As the US presidential race enters its final straight, Dr Tim Smith and Alexander Chartres join Rory McIvor to discuss how investors are weighing up the prospects of a new administration. Monday, 09 September 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2024-09-the-green-line September 2024: As markets try to weigh the outcome of the upcoming US election, Economist Jamie Dannhauser looks at the possible inflationary effects of the candidates’ policy platforms. Wednesday, 04 September 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2024-09-update-am How did August’s market whipsaw impact the Ruffer portfolio? What can we learn from investors’ reaction? Have recent events changed our thinking? Wednesday, 04 September 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2024-09-update-pm How did August’s market whipsaw impact the Ruffer portfolio? What can we learn from investors’ reaction? Have recent events changed our thinking? Wednesday, 04 September 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2024-03-permanence-and-change Whilst technology has transformed stock markets over the centuries, they are underpinned by human traits like fear and greed, which remain unaltered. But one key recent change has been to markets’ purpose, and this risks severe instability. Thursday, 08 August 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2024-08-cbam The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is set to revolutionise carbon pricing both within the bloc and beyond, contributing to cleaner, more equitable and more transparent global value chains. Wednesday, 31 July 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2024-06-ugly-duckling The Ruffer portfolio is filled with ugly ducklings. Unloved and out-of-favour assets, spurned by most investors. We believe these assets can transform and prove their worth just when they are needed most. Thursday, 18 July 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2024-07-ruffer-radio July 2024: Investors are herding into a narrow market and propelling stocks to new highs. Fund Manager Jasmine Yeo joins Rory McIvor to explain why this is a market well worth insuring against. Sunday, 14 July 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2024-q2-investment-review July 2024: Recent portfolio performance has, understandably, provoked questions from our clients and investors. These are broadly the same questions we have been asking ourselves, chief among which is: why are we comfortable owning a portfolio that feels so uncomfortable to hold? Jonathan Ruffer’s quarterly investment review seeks to answer that question, laying out the reasons for our conviction in a portfolio which can protect and grow capital as the market turns. Wednesday, 10 July 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2024-q2-investment-review July 2024: Recent portfolio performance has, understandably, provoked questions from our clients and investors. These are broadly the same questions we have been asking ourselves, chief among which is: why are we comfortable owning a portfolio that feels so uncomfortable to hold? Jonathan Ruffer’s quarterly investment review seeks to answer that question, laying out the reasons for our conviction in a portfolio which can protect and grow capital as the market turns. Wednesday, 10 July 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2024-07-the-green-line July 2024: The cost of servicing US national debt is set to swallow an ever-greater share of the public purse over the coming years. To tackle the debt burden, governments are faced with an array of unpalatable choices – with higher inflation an increasingly likely side effect. Tuesday, 09 July 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2024-q2-ri-report This quarter’s report highlights the start of engagements with two gold mining companies and our co-signing of a letter to airlines about their non-CO2 emissions, as well as summarising our activity in a busy voting season. Thursday, 04 July 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2024-tcfd-report Our fourth annual TCFD Report looks at Ruffer’s alignment with the TCFD recommendations, covering governance, strategy, risk and targets. Monday, 24 June 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2024-06-modern-slavery The impact of modern slavery on businesses and investors is complex and multi-dimensional. Here, we discuss some recent examples of Ruffer’s engagement with this important aspect of responsible investing. Thursday, 20 June 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2024-03-not-cricket Like markets, sports depend on trust and integrity, which are easily undermined by bad actors seeking a competitive edge. Clear, robust governance can help. Tuesday, 18 June 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2024-06-merryn-talks-money Fund Manager Alexander Chartres joins Merryn Somerset Webb and ByteTree CEO Charlie Morris to discuss Bitcoin and gold. Monday, 17 June 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2024-06-the-green-line June 2024: A recovery in the relative fortunes of the UK stock market has been predicted many times before, but almost always based solely on valuation grounds. But are there additional catalysts that could take the UK market from laggard to leader? Wednesday, 05 June 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2024-03-what-the-hell-is-water The new global monetary system created by Asian central bank devaluations in the mid-1990s is metamorphosing. Understanding this shift will be key to investment success. Saturday, 01 June 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2024-03-the-adventures-of-a-capitalist Mark Twain’s literary career was brilliant and lucrative. Whilst similar success eluded him in business, his literary public admired his ambition, a reflection of the age. Wednesday, 29 May 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2024-03-blue-frontier A new UN treaty aims to protect marine habitats and oceans’ resources more equitably. But will these reforms be too little too late? Wednesday, 29 May 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2024-03-getting-to-the-bottom-of-the-dollar Today, the dollar reigns supreme as the world’s principal reserve currency. But how did it reach this position? And how long can it stay there? Thursday, 09 May 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2024-05-the-green-line May 2024: Compared to equities, commodities are trading as cheaply as they have done for the past 50 years. But if history is any guide, exposure to real assets may be exactly what investors need to defend against higher and more volatile inflation. Tuesday, 07 May 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2023-stewardship-report Our 2023 report captures our key stewardship activities during the year and outlines some important enhancements to our methodology and processes. Monday, 29 April 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2024-04-ruffer-radio April 2024: Duncan MacInnes joins Rory McIvor to reflect on Q1 performance and discuss some of the portfolio’s key positions including gold and silver, derivative protections and the yen. Tuesday, 16 April 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2024-03-minds-over-matter The power of consciousness in markets is neglected by mainstream economics. But the mind’s ability to shape reality is critical for investors. That’s doubly true today thanks to the proliferation of alien intelligence and rapid changes in world order. Monday, 15 April 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2024-q1-ri-report In this quarter's report, we shine a spotlight on our recent engagements with BP and Ryanair and show how our approach to energy transition plans works in practice to help identify sources of both risk and opportunity. Thursday, 11 April 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2024-04-the-green-line April 2024: Markets today are very different to the pre-2008 era. But has systemic risk been removed or relocated? Wednesday, 10 April 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2024-q1-investment-review April 2024: Jonathan Ruffer discusses the stock market’s seemingly invincible summer. This has created distortions in both debt and equity markets, and with them, opportunities to benefit from a change in the season. Monday, 08 April 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2024-q1-investment-review April 2024: Jonathan Ruffer discusses the stock market’s seemingly invincible summer. This has created distortions in both debt and equity markets, and with them, opportunities to benefit from a change in the season. Monday, 08 April 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2024-04-q2-update Fund Managers Steve Russell and Matt Smith cover recent market developments, portfolio positioning and our current outlook. Monday, 08 April 2024 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2024-03-gravity-always-wins Whilst machines are clearly superior at short-term investing, their systematic strategies may create opportunities human investors can exploit over the long term. Tuesday, 19 March 2024 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2024-03-the-green-line March 2024: With bitcoin and equity markets breaking through all-time highs, there can be no mistaking investors bullishness so far this year. But it isn’t only typical ‘risk assets’ climbing higher. Friday, 15 March 2024 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2024-03-ruffer-review-2024 The Ruffer Review 2024 presents a wide-ranging collection of articles on financial markets, their participants, geopolitics and much more. Monday, 04 March 2024 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2024-03-something-new-under-the-sun Several new features of the global financial system have increased both the risk of a market crisis and its likely severity. Monday, 04 March 2024 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/book-corner/thinking-in-bets In Thinking in Bets, Annie Duke distils her insights from academia and professional poker into decision-making advice which can lead to improved investment skill. Thursday, 29 February 2024 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/book-corner/material-world Ed Conway’s Material World highlights the disconnect between our technological, services-based society and the physical materials underpinning it, raising questions around climate goals. Thursday, 29 February 2024 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/book-corner/the-currency-of-politics In The Currency of Politics, Stefan Eich argues that successive asset price bubbles show money needs to come back under explicit political control. Thursday, 29 February 2024 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2024-02-the-green-line February 2024: With markets pricing in multiple rate cuts for 2024, investors appear content that inflation is yesterday’s problem. But if inflation proves stickier than forecast and central banks are unable to grant the market the rate cuts it’s expecting, risk assets could be vulnerable. Thursday, 15 February 2024 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2024-01-the-green-line January 2024: 2022 showed how crucial asset correlations are for portfolio resilience, as equities and bonds fell together. While markets celebrated falling inflation last year, this month’s Green Line examines inflation volatility’s importance in the new regime and potential opportunities for investors. Thursday, 18 January 2024 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2023-q4-ri-report After a year dominated by talk of generative AI, it’s easy to forget the paramount importance of people when it comes to productivity. We engaged with Grifols, a Spanish bio-pharma company, about high staff turnover. Thursday, 18 January 2024 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2024-01-ruffer-radio January 2024: Can the economy and markets survive interest rates at 5%? Not for long, suggests fund manager Matt Smith – either interest rates must come down or asset prices do. Wednesday, 10 January 2024 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2024-01-back-to-the-future Last year, fortune favoured the brave investor, one who looked through inflation and policy uncertainty and loaded up on mega-cap tech stocks. We review Ruffer’s 2023 performance, and explain why markets may have to look further back than last year to see what might come next. Wednesday, 10 January 2024 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2023-q4-investment-review January 2024: After a difficult year for portfolio performance, Jonathan Ruffer looks ahead to a world which is curiously unfit for investment purpose, given the current condition of the equity market and the end of the decades-long bull market in bonds. Tuesday, 09 January 2024 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2023-q4-investment-review January 2024: After a difficult year for portfolio performance, Jonathan Ruffer looks ahead to a world which is curiously unfit for investment purpose, given the current condition of the equity market and the end of the decades-long bull market in bonds. Tuesday, 09 January 2024 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2023-12-the-green-line December 2023: Fed Chairman Powell aims to control inflation like his predecessor Volcker did. While markets approve his progress so far, Economist Jamie Dannhauser notes that unlike Volcker, Powell may lack the political support to maintain tight policy. The Fed’s greatest test may lie ahead. Thursday, 14 December 2023 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2023-12-indepth-alex-lennard Fund Manager Alex Lennard and Lawrence Parker-Brown from The Inside Network discuss Ruffer’s outlook for markets and portfolio construction amid major regime change. Wednesday, 13 December 2023 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2023-11-the-green-line November 2023: After a bond market rout commensurate with the steepest and fastest rate hiking cycle in a generation, is there now a case for adding fixed income into portfolios? Perhaps - there might even be two. In this month’s green line, Fund Manager Duncan MacInnes looks at the cyclical and structural cases for inflation-linked bonds. Thursday, 16 November 2023 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2023-10-the-green-line October 2023: Some extraordinary dynamics have emerged in markets in 2023. None more startling than the breakdown of the typical relationship between bond yields and equity valuations – especially mega-cap tech stocks. So far, it’s been bond investors who have endured the pain of rising real yields. But is an equity market repricing – reflective of stickier inflation and ‘higher for longer’ rates – the shoe that’s yet to drop? Wednesday, 18 October 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2023-q3-ri-report We outline some of the difficulties of engaging when it comes to commodity investments and explain our efforts to find ways around them. This quarter's engagements in focus are with BAT, ArcelorMittal and Perseus Mining. Wednesday, 11 October 2023 00:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2023-10-new-world-disorder Watch Fund Manager Alex Chartres' presentation from the Ruffer Investment Conference where he discusses the big picture trends shaping a more volatile investment era. Monday, 09 October 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2023-10-ruffer-radio October 2023: In this quarter’s episode of Ruffer Radio, Chairman Jonathan Ruffer shares his perspectives on the evolution of Ruffer’s all-weather investment approach since founding the firm in 1994. Monday, 09 October 2023 00:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2023-q3-investment-review October 2023: With our cautious positioning proving costly so far this year, Jonathan Ruffer considers why some offsetting assets have not performed as expected. He also explains why we remain confident that our portfolio is well positioned for the current tricky market environment. Friday, 06 October 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2023-q3-investment-review October 2023: With our cautious positioning proving costly so far this year, Jonathan Ruffer considers why some offsetting assets have not performed as expected. He also explains why we remain confident that our portfolio is well positioned for the current tricky market environment. Friday, 06 October 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2023-09-the-green-line September 2023: The Bank of Japan has been marching to a different beat to other central banks. While the Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of England hurried to ramp up rates in a battle against inflation, a deflationary mist lingered over Japan. Until now… Friday, 08 September 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2023-09-happy-clever-people Advanced economies face low and falling productivity. To solve this problem, companies need to innovate, and many have turned to technological solutions. But the best companies understand that an engaged, creative and knowledgeable workforce is the key. Sunday, 03 September 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/book-corner/the-outsiders Most CEOs focus on managing operations and neglect capital allocation. This is a mistake, argues Will Thorndike, in a book featuring eight outsider CEOs whose unorthodox pursuit of quality capital allocation has driven strong returns. Monday, 31 July 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2023-pcf The asset management industry has thrived in a disinflationary world for 40 years, favoring capital. If labor gains dominance, how will that affect asset allocation? Investment Manager Fiona Ker explores inflation volatility with the Portfolio Construction Forum. Monday, 24 July 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2023-tcfd-report Our third annual TCFD Report looks at Ruffer’s alignment with the TCFD recommendations, covering governance, strategy, risk and targets. Sunday, 23 July 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2023-06-the-disorder-of-the-phoenix Clarence Hatry was a company promoter whose bankruptcy rattled markets just before the Great Crash of 1929. His punishment was swift and severe, but Hatry was resilient and ultimately found redemption – as a bookseller with a royal warrant. Tuesday, 18 July 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2023-q2-investment-review July 2023: Our defensive positioning in anticipation of a liquidation event has hurt portfolio performance so far this year. In his latest quarterly review, Jonathan Ruffer recalls similar testing periods before past market crises and explains why we think the liquidation event has only been postponed, not cancelled. Thursday, 06 July 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2023-q2-investment-review July 2023: Our defensive positioning in anticipation of a liquidation event has hurt portfolio performance so far this year. In his latest quarterly review, Jonathan Ruffer recalls similar testing periods before past market crises and explains why we think the liquidation event has only been postponed, not cancelled. Thursday, 06 July 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2023-07-ruffer-radio July 2023: Investment Director Steve Russell reviews the downtrend in performance this year in the context of a global equity market rally. Thursday, 06 July 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2023-q2-ri-report Whilst we engage with companies year-round, voting season is generally concentrated in the second quarter of the year. We take a closer look at how we used our votes in Q2 to reinforce and complement our engagements with four companies across a broad range of sectors. Thursday, 06 July 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2023-07-the-green-line July 2023: Tennis champions share a lot of the same traits: resilience, determination, faith in their technique and style. And successful investing requires some of these traits too. In this month’s Green Line, we look at what we can learn from the tennis court, especially when it comes to investing at critical points of the market cycle. Sunday, 02 July 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2023-06-the-green-line June 2023: Whilst it’s been a tough start to the year for cautious investors, equity valuations – particularly in the US – suggest the rally could run out of steam, and cash now offers a tempting alternative. Moreover, with inflation stubbornly high, central bankers will be reluctant to intervene if markets encounter turbulence. Against this backdrop, we think caution is still justified. Thursday, 15 June 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2023-05-always-a-puzzle-never-a-game Tony Dye was CIO of one of the UK’s largest pension fund managers in the 1990s. Most people knew him for his value-driven investment approach and his warnings on the dot.com bubble. But I knew him as Dad. His experience taught me some key lessons which are every bit as valuable today – arguably more so. Tuesday, 06 June 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2023-05-reality-cheques We explore the intersection of natural risk with geopolitics and financial markets. Natural risk comes in many guises, from pandemic at the acute end of the spectrum to long-term challenges from a changing climate at the other. All matter for investors. Tuesday, 23 May 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2023-05-the-great-wealth-illusion Harry Houdini was a master of deception who traded on the illusion of immortality – until his death in 1926. Today, financial markets are just as beguiled by the power of illusions. And there is one investors should pay particular attention to – the bezzle. Sunday, 21 May 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2023-05-the-green-line May 2023: Markets have calmed following US banking sector turmoil, but recent bank failures may signal deeper problems in financial markets. Economist Jamie Dannhauser warns of growing market fragility and an increasing likelihood of a major liquidation event. Tuesday, 09 May 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2023-05-hemingway-recession Markets periodically face moments when improbable events become harsh realities. Economist Jamie Dannhauser warns we are nearing such a point, examining financial system vulnerabilities and how central banks cannot solve inflation without significant investor impact. Thursday, 04 May 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2023-04-whatever-it-breaks Central bankers once again face their old foe – inflation. Investors expect inflation to drop sharply in 2023 and the monetary cavalry to arrive by the second half of the year. But might those hopes be misguided? Wednesday, 26 April 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2022-stewardship-report Our 2022 report highlights the depth and breadth of our global stewardship activities. Our focus on direct engagement with company management has given us a fuller understanding of the companies our clients are invested in. Tuesday, 25 April 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2023-04-the-green-line April 2023: Today's policymakers face an impossible but unavoidable choice – they must send the train down one track or the other. Either they let inflation gather steam or they pull the proverbial lever and risk a financial system calamity. There is no third way. Thursday, 13 April 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2023-04-the-sequence-counts Underestimate sequencing risk at your peril. For portfolios with similar annualised returns but with cash flows in or out, the sequence of returns – when the gains and losses occur – can make a massive difference to final portfolio values. Wednesday, 12 April 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2023-03-hemispheres-of-influence An epic bull market in magical thinking has dominated the world in recent years. Now, real world tectonic shifts are driving us into a more inflation-prone and volatile regime. But it’s our divided brains and their relationship with technology which may hold the key to navigating the risks and opportunities of this new era. Monday, 10 April 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2023-04-ruffer-radio April 2023: After a strong start to the year, markets were destabilised by a shift in liquidity dynamics in March. Central banks now face a reckoning. Their choice is simple – inflation stability or financial stability – but it isn’t easy. Wednesday, 05 April 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2023-04-fifty-shades-of-beige How can we translate the unstructured data of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book economic updates into a tool with predictive power? Use an eighteenth century statistical theorem, of course – a theorem which also prevented the early internet being buried under a mountain of spam. Tuesday, 04 April 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2023-q1-ri-report This quarter’s Responsible Investment Report explains how companies setting high hurdle rates for projects can torpedo innovative solutions for problems such as climate change. We also detail our latest engagements with a wide assortment of companies around the world. Tuesday, 04 April 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2023-q1-investment-review April 2023: Portfolios have been alert to the dangers of a liquidity crisis for some time. Now that it has arrived, our task is to analyse how events are likely to play out. Certainly, it doesn’t appear to be a repeat of 2008. It isn’t quite like 1929 either. Reaching for either of those investor playbooks would be a mistake. But, as Jonathan Ruffer notes in his latest quarterly review, past circumstances can be instructive. Sunday, 02 April 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2023-q1-investment-review April 2023: Portfolios have been alert to the dangers of a liquidity crisis for some time. Now that it has arrived, our task is to analyse how events are likely to play out. Certainly, it doesn’t appear to be a repeat of 2008. It isn’t quite like 1929 either. Reaching for either of those investor playbooks would be a mistake. But, as Jonathan Ruffer notes in his latest quarterly review, past circumstances can be instructive. Sunday, 02 April 2023 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2023-03-gone-with-the-win-win A massive change in perceptions is needed to take into account the true environmental and social costs of businesses' operations. Guest contributor Duncan Austin suggests that perhaps sustainability is less a market opportunity and much more a moral challenge. Tuesday, 21 March 2023 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2023-03-winning-by-not-losing Investment Manager Fiona Ker and James Dunn from The Inside Network discuss Ruffer’s outlook for markets in 2023 and beyond. Tuesday, 14 March 2023 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2023-03-career-ing-into-liquidation The rapid demise of Silicon Valley Bank – the second-largest US bank failure in history – has caught markets by surprise. While we don’t expect a repeat of the 2008 global financial crisis, dismissing the broader risks to the financial system would be a mistake. Monday, 13 March 2023 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/everything-else/2023-03-hammersmith-fulham-case-study A case study written with the London Borough of Hammersmith & Fulham Pension Fund exploring the benefits of genuine diversification. Particularly in a new and volatile investment regime where it may be harder to achieve through traditional LGPS building blocks. Monday, 13 March 2023 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2023-03-american-pie The ancien régime of low inflation and free money is over. The painful adjustment process has further to run, with scope for mishaps as liquidity drains from the system. The market dreams of a Goldilocks scenario, just right for risky assets. But will the bears be kept at bay? Friday, 10 March 2023 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2023-03-the-green-line March 2023: As the sun now sets on 2023’s first earnings season, we fear equity markets are heading for a Hemingway moment. Jasmine Yeo explores why in our latest Green Line. Friday, 10 March 2023 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2023-03-citywire In the March edition of Duncan MacInnes' Citywire column, he discusses how Investors are being lured back onto the dance floor by the siren song of Fomo, just when the music could be about to stop. Friday, 10 March 2023 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2023-03-ruffer-review-2023 The 2023 Ruffer Review explores why liquidity concerns may spoil the market’s hopes for a Goldilocks scenario, why the monetary cavalry may arrive too late to save Wall Street and why understanding our divided brains may be the key to navigating this new regime of inflation volatility and geopolitical conflict. And much, much more. Tuesday, 07 March 2023 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2023-02-nzam The core goal of the Net Zero Asset Managers initiative (NZAM) is reducing emissions in the sectors its signatories invest in. This report looks at what NZAM is and how Ruffer is working towards meeting that goal. Monday, 06 March 2023 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2023-02-the-inflation-mirage At some point this year, inflation will probably fall. But it is likely to be a temporary dip as we enter an era of higher and more volatile inflation. We believe this calls for an active investment approach with a focus on liquidity. Thursday, 16 February 2023 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2023-02-the-green-line February 2023: Markets have rallied in expectation of a soft landing for the US economy and interest rate cuts from the Fed. As Steve Russell explains, markets can have one or the other, but both seems implausible. And any disappointment could leave investors feeling distinctly nauseous.   Tuesday, 31 January 2023 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2023-01-the-green-line January 2023: Jamie Dannhauser looks at the effects of China’s reopening on the global economy. If chaos does emerge in China’s labour market, it’s unlikely to be good news for asset markets. Optimists look forward to a powerful rebound in growth, but could it relight the inflationary flames? Thursday, 19 January 2023 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/everything-else/2023-01-the-new-inflation-regime The return of inflation has changed the investment environment for LGPS funds. This challenges the ability of LGPS to diversify, meet their obligations and actively manage risk or capture opportunities. In this piece, we ask three LGPS professionals the key question for this new regime: what is your plan? Monday, 16 January 2023 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2022-q4-ri-report In this quarter’s report, we delve into our engagement with a major European airline on carbon emissions reduction, a Japanese machinery firm on women in senior roles, and a multinational beauty company on governance and sourcing issues. Tuesday, 10 January 2023 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2023-01-are-we-there-yet Twelve months ago, we warned there would be turbulence ahead. Since then we have seen double-digit inflation, one of the fastest rate-hiking cycles in modern history and ‘defensive’ portfolios lose 20% of their value. Battle worn investors are hoping for respite, but is the worst behind us? Tuesday, 10 January 2023 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2022-q4-investment-review January 2023: To get a sense of where we’re going in the inflationary journey, it helps to understand where we came from. Jonathan Ruffer’s quarterly review explores the root causes of this new economic landscape. He discusses why, in a regime of inflation volatility, no one investment allocation will be enough to steer portfolios through treacherous market waters. Monday, 09 January 2023 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2022-q4-investment-review January 2023: To get a sense of where we’re going in the inflationary journey, it helps to understand where we came from. Jonathan Ruffer’s quarterly review explores the root causes of this new economic landscape. He discusses why, in a regime of inflation volatility, no one investment allocation will be enough to steer portfolios through treacherous market waters. Monday, 09 January 2023 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2023-01-ruffer-radio January 2023: Of the many storylines to unfold in 2022, only one really mattered to investors – rising interest rates and falling asset prices. The chief protagonist in this tale – the Federal Reserve - conducted one of the fastest and steepest rate hiking cycles in financial history. But how much further do they need to go? Friday, 06 January 2023 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2022-12-the-correlation-conundrum DC pension schemes are beginning to allocate more to illiquid assets – looking beyond conventional asset classes to achieve real capital growth over the long-term. Here we look at how DC schemes should best complement illiquid assets with an uncorrelated, liquid, and diversified strategy. Tuesday, 13 December 2022 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2022-12-the-green-line December 2022: With equity valuations having fallen from their highs, investors are eyeing up stocks once again. Here, Duncan MacInnes discusses why another market rally will rely more on fantasy and belief than on healthy corporate earnings. Friday, 09 December 2022 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2022-tcfd-report Our second TCFD Report provides an update on how we consider climate change risks and opportunities in our clients’ portfolios, and some of our recent engagements with companies on better climate outcomes and with data providers to generate more useful metrics. Thursday, 01 December 2022 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2022-11-the-green-line November 2022: Investors are facing a pernicious combination of volatile inflation and an impending recession. After the widespread sell-off across asset classes this year, Jasmine Yeo asks if there may now be an opportunity to take a calculated risk. Friday, 11 November 2022 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2022-10-the-case-for-cash Holding cash is not usually considered a courageous move by active investors. But here, Duncan MacInnes suggests that at times, a high cash allocation is in fact an act of bravery. And now, more than ever, breaking convention may be crucial for investors. Monday, 24 October 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2022-10-citywire In the October edition of Duncan MacInnes' Citywire column, he explains why Ruffer is sitting on the highest cash weighting in its history. Wednesday, 19 October 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2022-10-naming-and-taming-the-bear What can history teach us about investing in bear markets? Jos North and Jasmine Yeo examine the strategies which have prevailed in previous drawdowns and ask what might work this time around. Monday, 17 October 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2022-10-lessons-for-dc-schemes DC schemes and their investors can take some crucial lessons from recent whipsaws in the UK government bond market. Sunday, 16 October 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2022-10-the-green-line October 2022: So far this year, we’ve seen a painful but orderly repricing of risky assets. Now, we fear something worse – a possible liquidation event. One in which owners of risky assets like equities and credit are forced into a sudden rush for the exit. Thursday, 13 October 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2022-10-ruffer-radio October 2022: Investment Manager Jasmine Yeo joins Rory McIvor to review a quarter of dizzying market activity. They discuss the volatility of UK gilts over recent weeks, consider the potential for a liquidation event in asset markets and provide a portfolio update. Sunday, 09 October 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2022-10-lgps-liquidity-lessons-from-the-ldi-crisis The long-term hunt for yield has driven LGPS funds to adopt a liquidity barbell, with listed equities and bonds at one end of the spectrum and illiquid alternatives at the other. But these assets’ performance can be worryingly correlated at times of market stress. Wednesday, 05 October 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2022-q3-investment-review October 2022: In his latest quarterly review, Jonathan Ruffer reflects on the possibility of an imminent liquidity crisis in markets and looks at why even the safest assets might not prove very safe at all. Sunday, 02 October 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2022-q3-investment-review October 2022: In his latest quarterly review, Jonathan Ruffer reflects on the possibility of an imminent liquidity crisis in markets and looks at why even the safest assets might not prove very safe at all. Sunday, 02 October 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2022-q3-ri-report In this quarter’s report, we reflect on engagement with CDP’s initiative to improve companies’ collection and disclosure of carbon related data. We also provide an update on our latest stewardship activities. Sunday, 02 October 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2022-10-case-of-the-misplaced-money Portfolios are prepared for a potential liquidation event in asset markets, “a waterfall of the things that can be sold, as distinct from the ones that can’t.” This article from Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, speaking to Ruffer’s Chief Investment Officer Henry Maxey, explores these changing liquidity dynamics. Thursday, 29 September 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2022-09-barber-boom The story of an economic gear shift which sent post-war Britain careering around country lanes, before skidding on an oil slick and being sent ditchward. There it was left, engine smoking, entangled in the brambles of inflation. It wasn’t until 1980 that road-side recovery eventually arrived in the shape of Paul Volcker and his inflation curbing toolkit. Thursday, 22 September 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2022-09-the-green-line September 2022: So far in 2022, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has resolutely stuck to its policy of negative interest rates and yield curve control (YCC), despite the dramatic hawkish shift from the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) and, more recently, the yen’s nosedive. Might the BoJ be about to change course? Thursday, 15 September 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/book-corner/masons-tricksters-and-cartographers Masons, Tricksters and Cartographers is about the sociology of science and the ‘unplanned and messy’ nature of knowledge and knowledge systems. Turnbull explores, in rather turgid prose, differing ways of producing knowledge across cultures. From a diversity of disparate systems, he finds figures that crop up time and again. Thursday, 08 September 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2022-09-deserting-discs “I don’t even know why I would want to be on a label in a few years, because I don’t think it’s going to work by labels and by the distribution systems in the same way... music itself is going to become like running water or electricity” David Bowie, 2002 Monday, 05 September 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2022-09-dc-pensions Investor behaviour is both instinctive and learned. Low interest rates have taught investors to allocate to ever-riskier assets in the pursuit of returns. The cost of doing so, in the form of low or negative ’risk-free’ rates, was minimal. But with rising interest rates, the risk-free rate now carries value. Monday, 29 August 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2022-02-the-art-of-bubble-spotting Anyone can be taken in by financial bubbles; that's why they're so dangerous. Monday, 08 August 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2022-02-thinking-in-narratives Stories have always influenced human behaviour: our decision-making is often driven more by a good tale than objective facts and data. But stories can defy reality only for so long. Monday, 08 August 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2022-02-the-great-restoration Humanity has the capacity to cure climate change – the question is not so much “can we?” as “will we?” Guest author Tim Kruger may have an answer. Monday, 25 July 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/book-corner/trillion-dollar-coach The future of information technology is beyond the comprehension of most. And competition between the companies who want to shape it is fiercer than ever. Monday, 25 July 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2022-07-inflation-bad-for-portfolios-good-for-society As inflation has soared to its highest level for 40 years, financial markets have taken fright, with most bond and equity markets down significantly so far in 2022. In fact, the US is now officially in a bear market, and inflation pressures show few signs of fading – quite the contrary. Thursday, 21 July 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2022-07-what-if Our approach to building portfolios favours being roughly right, as opposed to precisely wrong, designed to preserve capital across a range of economic and market outcomes. But naturally, we consider some outcomes more likely than others. At this critical juncture in markets, Duncan MacInnes offers an exercise in imagination – what if we are wrong? Wednesday, 20 July 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2022-07-citywire In the July edition of his Citywire column, Duncan MacInnes asks what would have to happen for us to look back in a year to find the post-pandemic bull market had suffered only a blip and inflation was just transitory? Sunday, 17 July 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2022-02-the-game-that-goes-on President Theodore Roosevelt was hailed for dismantling the powerful monopolies which emerged from America’s industrial revolution. Does his trustbusting provide a blueprint for what investors can expect from a revitalised antitrust movement on Capitol Hill? Thursday, 14 July 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2022-07-the-green-line July 2022: It is hard to overstate how far free and unlimited central bank liquidity has rewired the financial system. As central bankers extract themselves from the monetary rabbit hole they have burrowed their way into, the damage to traditional portfolios is likely to be considerable. This tightening of monetary policy is happening because inflation has returned – with a vengeance. Thursday, 14 July 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/book-corner/the-shock-of-the-old At the heart of historical enquiry are two simple questions: ‘What has changed?’ and ‘What has stayed the same?’ For investors, concerned with the future value of assets, these questions can be reframed: ‘What will change?’ and ‘What will stay the same?’ Sunday, 10 July 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2022-07-ruffer-radio July 2022: Investment Director Duncan MacInnes joins Rory McIvor for a review of the quarter, discussing the scale of wealth destruction across markets and how they see this rippling out into real world behaviour, and looking forward to what could be on the horizon. Thursday, 07 July 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2022-q2-investment-review July 2022: Jonathan Ruffer explains why wage demands are the final element required to fuel the new inflationary epoch. This regime will be good for social mobility in the long run, with the workforce and innovators as the winners. But it might well be brutal for the investment community. Monday, 04 July 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2022-02-a-grand-plan-for-the-land After almost four decades in financial markets, Harry Buscall retired from Ruffer in 2020 to embark on a new adventure with his son Dominic at his family farm, Ken Hill in Norfolk. Using a combination of rewilding, regenerative farming and traditional conservation practices, the team have devised an innovative approach to sustainable land management. Thursday, 30 June 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2022-07-01-dc-pension-schemes Conventional strategies have served defined contribution (DC) pension scheme investors well for the past half century. But this year – as inflation has taken hold and policymakers scramble to contain it – the vulnerability of bonds and equities has been laid bare. Thursday, 30 June 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2022-06-30-mission-possible Industrial farming enabled the last century’s massive population growth. While food is abundant overall, challenges in security and sustainability create both risks and opportunities for investors. Wednesday, 29 June 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2022-q2-ri-report In this quarter’s report, we explore the challenges involved with feeding a growing global population and how these are reflected in Ruffer portfolios. We also include an update on our stewardship activities throughout the quarter. Wednesday, 29 June 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/book-corner/engage-the-enemy-more-closely What's the difference between knowledge and wisdom? The answer is that these two elements need to fuse in a chemical reaction to produce an effective investment strategy – covet wisdom, and you have time on your side; covet knowledge, and you have facts on your side. It is, of course, the luck of the draw as to which one is the winner on Wednesday. Sunday, 19 June 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2022-06-ruffer-radio June 2022: Avoiding major drawdowns in markets is key to outperforming over the long-term. It may sound obvious, but in a world of near universal asset vulnerability, it has seldom been more important to stand resolute against falling markets. Wednesday, 15 June 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/book-corner/the-profit-paradox Jan Eeckhout is a research professor; fortunately, he doesn't write like one. Despite the serious subject matter of The Profit Paradox his style is engaging and conversational, and the book is light on its feet and commendably free of jargon. Sunday, 12 June 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2022-06-the-green-line June 2022: Who’d be a central banker today? Once, they were the masters of the universe, bravely slaying the dragon of inflation and slashing interest rates to save the economy in times of peril. Today, they seem powerless to control inflation. Fearful of raising interest rates too far, they issue hollow calls for wage restraint. No wonder Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, admitted to MPs recently that “It’s a very, very difficult place for us to be in.” Thursday, 09 June 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2022-05-short-dreams Economic conditions of the last few decades have supported a long ascent in the majority of asset prices. Investors must now confront conditions alien to most, potentially leading to a more painful descent. Economist Jamie Dannhauser explores the key dynamics of this changed economic landscape. Tuesday, 07 June 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/book-corner/invisible-women Why are women in the United Kingdom 50% more likely to be misdiagnosed after a heart attack? Or 47% more likely to be seriously injured in road traffic accidents? Wednesday, 18 May 2022 00:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2022-04-protecting-capital Protecting clients’ capital is the core of Ruffer’s investment approach. As the market landscape has evolved, so too have the strategies we use to achieve this objective. We look at historic examples of our protection strategies and discuss the risks we see in the current market environment. Tuesday, 17 May 2022 00:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2022-04-crossing-the-rubicon Simultaneous shifts in the global energy system, geopolitics, demography, technology and much else besides promise a more inflation-prone and volatile world ahead. Alexander Chartres discusses these risks and what we are doing to help steer our clients through them. Monday, 16 May 2022 00:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2022-05-the-green-line May 2022: So far this year, the prices of almost all conventional assets are down. Supposedly diversified portfolios have turned out to be anything but. To preserve their capital, investors will require a new approach to constructing portfolios - flexible, adaptable, robust, and responsive. Thursday, 12 May 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2022-02-taking-back-control In the late 1970s, the world was on the cusp of radical change. The ‘Deflation Machine’ was being born. Deng Xiaoping began reforming China’s moribund economy. In the West, liberal, free-market ideals were gaining traction, ideals that underpinned the subsequent regime of rapid, disinflationary global growth. Friday, 29 April 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2021-stewardship-report Our 2021 report highlights the depth and breadth of our stewardship activities. Our focus on engaging directly with company management has afforded us a deeper understanding of the companies in which our clients are invested. Thursday, 28 April 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2022-04-ruffer-radio April 2022: We reflect on the events that have dominated markets - including the major developments we’re all talking about. We also discuss aspects which have received less attention, but may well be crucial for investors in the months ahead. Tuesday, 12 April 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2022-02-the-risk-addiction In the depths of addiction nothing else matters. The pursuit is focused, relentless and uncompromising – dismissive of any potential consequences. So what happens when the addiction is to risk? Sunday, 10 April 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2022-04-citywire In the April edition of his Citywire column, Duncan MacInnes addresses common diversification mistakes investors make and outlines the Ruffer approach in increasingly complex markets. Thursday, 07 April 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2022-04-the-green-line April 2022: Traditional balanced portfolios rely on equities and bonds fulfilling their roles – equities for good times, bonds to cushion the bad. But after a torrid three months for markets, investors are being forced to tear up the rulebook. Wednesday, 06 April 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2022-q1-villains-to-heroes While responsible investors typically favour companies directly tackling climate change, banks play a crucial role in the Net Zero transition, making investor engagement with financial institutions essential. Tuesday, 05 April 2022 00:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2022-q1-ri-report In our latest quarterly report, we look at the crucial role banks can play in facilitating the transition to Net Zero, and include an update on our stewardship activities throughout the quarter. Monday, 04 April 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2022-q1-investment-review April 2022: In his latest investment review, Jonathan Ruffer reflects upon how forty years of a bull market, where for decades ‘buying the dip’ has been a sure-fire idea, is clashing against circumstances and events which may break this benign and predictable investment pattern. Sunday, 03 April 2022 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2022-03-ruffer-radio March 2022: Tim Kruger is the guest author in this year’s Ruffer Review. In this episode, we discuss his article which draws on his work in the field of carbon extraction and its role in the energy transition. Friday, 11 March 2022 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2022-03-the-green-line March 2022: Central bankers tell us the current burst of inflation will be transitory and workers will not mind the temporary squeeze on their living standards. In today’s full employment economy, this is not convincing. The implied policy response is flawed, potentially even reckless. Thursday, 10 March 2022 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/book-corner/the-bed-of-procrustes Aphorisms, done well, convey the wisdom of the proverb, with the power of poetry. Similar in form to a tweet, the two should not, must not, be confused or conflated. Wednesday, 09 March 2022 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2022-02-perils-of-yesterdays-logic Increasing inflation volatility represents the greatest challenge to investors for a generation. A new regime and the collapse of the financial market status quo requires us to reimagine portfolios. No longer can we rely on yesterday’s logic. Monday, 28 February 2022 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2022-02-the-gathering-storm China’s bid for global power, climate change and the transition away from fossil fuels are three of the defining megatrends of our time. Collectively, they promise generational upheaval. But decades of peace and stability have left markets, politics, economies and societies complacent and vulnerable. It’s going to get bumpy. Monday, 28 February 2022 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2022-02-ruffer-review-2022 Download our 2022 edition of the Ruffer Review. We explore how turbulence lies ahead for investors as inflation volatility sets up to be the biggest challenge for investors in a generation. We also discuss risk and its repercussions, shifts in global politics and Great Power relations, a warming planet and shifting energy mix as well as financial disruption and regime changes. Friday, 11 February 2022 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2022-02-the-green-line February 2022: A bubble in profitless tech and so called ‘meme’ stocks may be bursting in front of our eyes. But so far investors still think there is safety to be found in the last decade’s big winners, whatever their valuation. This risks confusing size and past success with safety. Friday, 11 February 2022 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2022-02-turbulence-warning The return of inflation has jolted markets. But investing for higher inflation is not the same as investing for inflation volatility – this presents and unique and complex problem for investors. Friday, 04 February 2022 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2022-02-turbulence-ahead February 2022: Volatility (turbulence for the sake of this metaphor) will be the key challenge for investors in 2022. Loose financial conditions have added an extra hundred knots to markets over the past two years and autopilot has worked just fine. But not all turbulence is the same. Tuesday, 01 February 2022 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2022-01-ruffer-radio January 2022: Investment Director Matt Smith looks ahead to 2022, we briefly review the investments which worked well (and those that didn’t) and assess the opportunities and challenges arising from the return of economic, market and inflation volatility. Thursday, 13 January 2022 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2022-01-the-green-line January 2022: Money has never been so easy. As central banks step up their efforts to tame inflation, conditions could be about to get significantly trickier for investors and their portfolios. Thursday, 13 January 2022 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2021-q4-fixing-the-framework-for-fixed-income A Ryanair flight from Athens to Vilnius was forced to land in Minsk, Belarus, after authorities claimed a bomb threat. The plane was escorted by a fighter jet, but the real purpose became clear when Belarusian officials arrested a passenger, political activist Roman Protasevich. Thursday, 13 January 2022 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2021-q4-ri-report In our latest quarterly report, we explore the framework we have designed to help us achieve a holistic understanding of fixed income risk, our participation in the CDP Non-Disclosure Campaign, and stewardship activities during the quarter. Thursday, 13 January 2022 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2021-q4-investment-review January 2022: In his latest Investment Review, Jonathan Ruffer warns of the tide coming in for inflation, “brought about in a series of waves of increasing severity”. It is important to remember what happens on the shoreline as the tide comes in – hour on hour it advances along the coastline, but there are moments, between the waves, when the sea appears to retreat. So it will be with inflation: not a straight line, but plenty of volatility headed our way. Monday, 10 January 2022 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2021-12-the-green-line December 2021: At Ruffer we’re used to being accused of seeing the glass ‘half empty’ rather than ‘half full’. It’s not that we’re inherently pessimistic, but our job is to protect our investors’ capital against whatever might go wrong in markets. So naturally we tend to focus more on the risks than the opportunities. Or as Jonathan Ruffer might put it – to see the mousetrap clearer than the cheese. Friday, 17 December 2021 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/book-corner/into-the-air Thinking beyond the summit. There are plenty of excellent books about investing. But sometimes the best advice can be found in unlikely places. Wednesday, 15 December 2021 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2021-11-the-green-line November 2021: Investors have divided into two camps. Those who believe inflation will subside and the rise in prices will prove temporary. And others who fear we are entering a period of high sustained inflation reminiscent of the 1970s. We consider both scenarios unlikely. Friday, 19 November 2021 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2021-11-demise-of-the-deflation-machine The global economy has been inherently disinflationary since at least the early 1990s. The result: a generation of investors who have never had to take inflation risk seriously. Monday, 15 November 2021 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2021-11-reimagining-portfolio-construction November 2021: They say it takes 66 days to make a habit, and just a minute to break it. Most investors have been constructing portfolios the same way for 10, 20 or 30 years – building the habit of a lifetime. But a new market regime demands a change to the art of portfolio construction. Monday, 01 November 2021 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2021-10-equities-a-false-sense-of-security For the current generation of investors, equity markets have been remarkably happy hunting grounds. There have been crashes, bangs and wallops in recent years but, so far, central banks have ensured any pain was short-lived. As interest rates have fallen, investors have chased stocks up the page and global equity markets are now more highly valued than ever. Thursday, 14 October 2021 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2021-10-ruffer-radio October 2021: A brief round up where we look at how recent events impacted markets and Ruffer portfolios, and what investors have learned as we move into the fourth quarter. Sunday, 10 October 2021 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2021-q3-investment-review October 2021: Ruffer clients have become used to a particular pattern of returns from their portfolios. The pattern hinges on pivotal moments in financial markets, and we are approaching another. In his latest Investment Review, Jonathan Ruffer considers a world trapped by indebtedness and how events have conspired to close off the escape routes for investors. Thursday, 07 October 2021 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2021-q3-how-a-pinch-of-salt-can-help-the-energy-transition They are fundamental in powering our lives: lithium-ion batteries. Lightweight and durable, we use them in our phones, laptops and increasingly in our cars. Already, they seem embedded in our society, but the electric revolution is only just beginning. Wednesday, 06 October 2021 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2021-q3-ri-report In our latest report, we examine at an often-overlooked part of the energy transition story: batteries. Specifically, the merits of shifting from lithium-ion to sodium-ion technology. We also detail our stewardship and engagement activities during the quarter. Wednesday, 06 October 2021 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2021-10-the-green-line October 2021: The energy sector has fallen from 16% of the S&P 500 just 13 years ago, to below 3% as of today. And yet the integrated oil majors make up more than 6% of Ruffer portfolios. We often receive questions from clients about the rationale and justification for these investments. Monday, 04 October 2021 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2021-09-inflation-protection-toolkit Investors have been wrestling with how best to defend their portfolios against financial repression (higher levels of inflation relative to lower interest rates) ever since the Financial Crisis in 2008. And now with inflation numbers hitting multi-decade highs, this search has become increasingly urgent. Here, we assess the options available to investors and look at what we’ve chosen in our inflation protection toolkit. Thursday, 23 September 2021 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2021-09-the-green-line September 2021: What can they see that we can’t? Private equity bids for UK companies are soaring, while at the same time the UK stock market languishes at valuations well below US peers. Thursday, 16 September 2021 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2021-tfcd-report Our inaugural TCFD Report outlines Ruffer's Climate Change Framework and our response to climate-related financial disclosure recommendations, showcasing our evolving approach to understanding the climate risks facing our investee companies. Friday, 10 September 2021 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2021-09-worried-about-inflation The return of inflation poses a critical threat to balanced portfolios – severing the relationship between bonds and equites which has held steady for nearly half a century. And yet investors, so far, have stuck to what they know – trusting a portfolio built for the world which we are leaving. Wednesday, 08 September 2021 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2021-08-the-green-line August 2021: Engaging with companies to improve their climate policies is not only beneficial to the environment, but also to investors. Our engagement with ArcelorMittal has led to significant positive outcomes. Friday, 13 August 2021 00:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2021-07-ruffer-radio July 2021: Inflation is back, but for how long? Bertie Dannatt joins Ruffer Radio to discuss how markets are digesting the return of inflation, and what rising prices mean for consumers and investors alike. Monday, 12 July 2021 00:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2021-07-the-green-line July 2021: The best investments are often the least comfortable ones. This is certainly the case with our decision to add bitcoin exposure to our portfolios in November last year. Friday, 09 July 2021 00:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2021-q2-ri-report In our latest quarterly report, we examine the global significance of new US emission reduction targets and share our stewardship and engagement activities during the quarter. Tuesday, 06 July 2021 00:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2021-q2-the-decisive-decade Rory Goodman analyses the pledges made at the Leaders Summit on Climate in April 2021. While admirable, these climate pledges will be costly – who will pay for the revolution? Monday, 05 July 2021 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2021-q2-investment-review July 2021: We have been talking of inflation for well over a decade – which is not the same thing as calling its timing. An impasse was created by the failure of the economy to grow after the 2008 crisis – all the risks (as we patiently explained) were deflationary, and in vain did the central banks and governments try to force an inflationary impulse into a sluggish world. Friday, 02 July 2021 00:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2021-06-navigating-information It’s easy to be overwhelmed by the volume of information aimed at us. Inundated by a daily torrent of headlines, images, messages and data, we can be left feeling unable to process it to a satisfying degree. For investors, navigating information is central to being effective. Insights from information theory and gauge theory can help. Thursday, 24 June 2021 00:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2021-06-the-green-line June 2021: We have been positioned for a vaccine-led rally and recovery since summer last year. That recovery is here, economies are opening up and animal spirits are being unleashed. But the pickup is so fast, messy and distorted that traditional measures are not giving the full picture. Thursday, 03 June 2021 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2021-06-goodbye-mr-bond June 2021: For over 40 years, bond investors have been handsomely rewarded. Inflation was exiled after the 1970s and interest rates have marched down the hill ever since. Barring the occasional hiccup along the way, bond prices have risen and delivered exceptional returns to their holders – especially during bouts of stress in equity markets. Monday, 31 May 2021 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2021-05-water-scarcity Disruption to weather patterns and an increase in extreme events have played havoc with the water cycle. The freshwater crisis is alarming not only because of our dependence on water, but also because of the speed at which the crisis is approaching. Tuesday, 18 May 2021 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2021-05-the-green-line May 2021: Over the past five months investors put more money into equity funds than in the previous twelve years combined. At Ruffer we believe we are entering a new regime, which will be disastrous for conventional bonds. But what will this new regime – with the global economy poised for a growth spurt – mean for equities? Thursday, 13 May 2021 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2021-04-ruffer-radio April 2021: Andrew van Biljon and Lauren French offer their insights into the world of behavioural economics. What do these theories say about us as decision makers? What are their shortcomings? Can behavioural science make us better investors? Sunday, 18 April 2021 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2021-04-the-green-line April 2021: As we emerge from lockdowns and pent-up demand meets ongoing supply constraints, we consider how different asset classes might fare if inflation does return. Thursday, 15 April 2021 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2021-q1-investment-review April 2021: Looking back over the past year and a bit, we feel a sense of relief Ruffer has performed well through another crisis – protecting clients from the initial covid turmoil, and making good money in the many weathers that have followed. Yet the markets remain our master – they will do what they do, when they do it: we must do our best in that context. And that context is about to change. Sunday, 11 April 2021 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2021-q1-ri-report In our latest quarterly report, we explore the transition to electric vehicles and share our stewardship and engagement activities during the first quarter of 2021. Thursday, 08 April 2021 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2021-03-the-cazique General Sir Gregor MacGregor orchestrated one of the most audacious scams in history – marvellous in its ambition and catastrophic in its consequences. Sunday, 04 April 2021 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2020-stewardship-report Our 2020 report highlights the depth and breadth of our stewardship activities. Our focus on engaging directly with management has afforded us a deeper understanding of our investee companies. Monday, 29 March 2021 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2021-03-the-great-acceleration The coronavirus crisis has accelerated pre-existing tectonic shifts that are changing world order. Four interlinked areas deserve the attention of long-term investors: greater geopolitical instability; the digital revolution; domestic political changes in the advanced economies; and the rise of environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations. Sunday, 28 March 2021 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2021-03-the-green-line March 2021: Corporate bonds had a near death experience in 2020. After a decade where credit markets grew to $10 trillion, borrowing costs spiked as we stared into the abyss of a global economic shutdown. We had been warning of this for several years and were positioned accordingly. But since the US Federal Reserve drenched the market with its money hosepipe, credit is alive again. Friday, 12 March 2021 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2021-03-jurassic-risk The death of inflation has been greatly exaggerated. Its return will ruin the traditional balanced 60/40 portfolios. Investors need to prepare for a world of greater inflation volatility and with it the possibility that bonds and equities fall in tandem. Tuesday, 02 March 2021 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2021-03-ruffer-review-2021 Download our 2021 edition of the Ruffer Review. In it we explore the fate of traditional balanced portfolios, our latest big picture thinking – on regime change and inflation – as well as fresh perspectives on trust, belief and behavioural bias. Monday, 01 March 2021 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2021-03-techtonics March 2021: From the green economy to the new Cold War, cyber Pearl Harbors to a reimagining of inflation and money itself – technological change has radical consequences for investors. We look at the key challenges and opportunities in the age of transformation. Monday, 01 March 2021 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2021-02-ruffer-radio February 2021: Bethany McLean joins us to discuss the tension between rational markets and emotional investors, what separates the visionary leader from the fraudster and how a bias to belief affects our decision-making. Thursday, 25 February 2021 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2021-02-the-green-line February 2021: Our view is that rising prices in some traditional industries are signalling that the recovery, when it comes, will look very different and be much more inflationary than anything we have seen for 30 years. Friday, 12 February 2021 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2021-01-the-green-line January 2021: We all know that 2020 was an incredible, and terrible, year. The pandemic caused the worst recession for centuries, along with an appalling death toll and suffering. Meanwhile financial assets pushed ever upwards, surfing a wave of liquidity meant to counteract the impact of the pandemic. Thursday, 14 January 2021 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2020-q4-investment-review January 2021: A changing of the guard is also the way of the world – and on its way. We are preparing for a time when high taxes – on capital gains, wealth, and income – effectively constrain capital accumulation. Tuesday, 12 January 2021 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/20201-01-ruffer-radio January 2021: 2020 will loom large on financial markets for many years to come. As we cautiously make our way out of the crisis, Duncan MacInnes and Fiona Ker review the more startling developments of the last year. Friday, 08 January 2021 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2021-01-the-race-to-net-zero The UK made headlines in the summer of 2019 when it became the first major economy to pass a law requiring greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to net-zero by 2050. Tuesday, 05 January 2021 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2020-q4-ri-report In our latest quarterly report, Alexia Palacios reviews global efforts in the race to net-zero by 2050, and we share our stewardship and engagement activities during the fourth quarter of 2020. Saturday, 02 January 2021 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2020-12-the-green-line December 2020: The consensus is we are in a K shaped recovery - that means winners and losers. What impact will this have on the economy and will the vaccine change its course? Tuesday, 01 December 2020 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2020-11-60-40 This has been the allocation of choice for traditional balanced portfolios and has served investors well for the past 50 years. Is this all about to change and should investors be looking for something different? Tuesday, 01 December 2020 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2020-11-the-green-line November 2020: The future looks even more uncertain than usual. Normally uncertainty translates into lower asset prices. But not this time. And with the prices of all assets buoyed by abundant liquidity, we fear a traditional ‘diversified’ portfolio is not going to be much protection in the next market convulsion. Friday, 13 November 2020 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2020-10-the-green-line October 2020: The coronavirus pandemic has hit public finances like a war. Across the world governments have scrambled to offset the economic and social impact of the virus. Huge, and necessary, rises in public spending have pushed government deficits to levels not seen since the two world wars of the twentieth century. Thursday, 15 October 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2020-10-ruffer-radio October 2020: All elections are equal. But some elections are more equal than others. In the latest episode of Ruffer Radio, Dr Tim Smith and Alexander Chartres discuss the 2020 race to the White House. Tuesday, 06 October 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2020-q3-investment-review October 2020: Whatever one’s outlook, there have been times in 2020 when the markets seemed to echo one’s innermost thoughts, and times when we shout out like Falstaff, that the whole world has gone mad. Sunday, 04 October 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2020-10-tailings-dams We have been mining the world’s natural resources for thousands of years. Yet the global demand for these is only likely to increase in the future, given their role in supporting economic and social progress and enabling innovations and technologies that are needed to address climate change. Sunday, 04 October 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/book-corner/dignity Seeking respect in back row America. Wednesday, 30 September 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2020-03-hyperinflation-and-me "I remember my father reporting this note with 11 zeros was worth 'roughly one cabbage' at the time of issue." Sunday, 20 September 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/everything-else/2020-09-mmt-on-the-march The response to this economic crisis has moved away from the old monetary regime to one where fiscal policy has become more important. Tuesday, 15 September 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2020-09-the-green-line September 2020: The superforecasters of the Good Judgement Project believe there is a 93% probability we will have an FDA-approved vaccine in a year, and enough of it to inoculate 25m people in the US. This is up from just 20% in the dark days of April. Wednesday, 09 September 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2020-03-buy-and-hold Buy good companies. And own them forever. As investment approaches go, it is seductively simple. In a financial world that often looks confused, and in places absurd, buying and holding a portfolio of high-quality companies has evident appeal. Monday, 31 August 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2020-08-the-green-line August 2020: The US internet shares have been roaring ahead, particularly in recent months. The coronavirus crisis has accelerated the shift toward online retail and smart communications, and these are the most obvious winners. It has been a giddy ride. Monday, 17 August 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2020-07-a-stock-by-any-other-name Traditional finance theory tells us that markets are rational. Investors incorporate all public and private information when making their investment decisions. This school of thought is grappling with the field of behavioural finance, which asserts that human psychology and biases also act in an irrational way to influence these same investment decisions. Tuesday, 04 August 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2020-03-blowing-up-the-box Across many developed economies, the prevailing economic and financial policy framework – what we’ll call the Box – is failing to deliver for much of the adult population. The mood is ripe for a policy revolution, a new monetary settlement. When the Box is blown up, inflation objectives will lose their privileged position. Fiscal orthodoxy will be abandoned. This will demolish the pillars on which so many investment strategies are built. Friday, 31 July 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2020-07-the-green-line July 2020: Coronavirus shutdowns have triggered the worst recession since the Great Depression. Like a depth charge dropped against a submarine, we’ve felt the shockwave but have yet to see how much debris floats to the surface. Ratings agencies suggest the damage is serious and that default rates will soar. Thursday, 16 July 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2020-07-ruffer-radio July 2020: Alexander Chartres, Investment Director and resident geopolitics specialist, explores the shifting sands of world order, focusing on the deteriorating relationship between the US and China. Sunday, 05 July 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/charities/2020-07-guide-for-trustees July 2020: To help navigate these uncertain times, here is a quick guide for trustees, stewards and advisors in the third sector. Thursday, 02 July 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2020-06-the-green-line June 2020: The sheer scale of the economic heart attack caused by COVID-19 can be difficult to grasp, especially when the sun is shining and lockdowns are starting to ease. But this month’s chart of job losses and recoveries in US recessions since the Second World War brings home the enormity of the damage. Thursday, 11 June 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2020-q2-investment-review June 2020: This review touches briefly on what has gone before, then sets out what we expect for the coming months and years. Wednesday, 03 June 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/from-the-firm/being-wary-of-fraud-online For the most part, the world has moved online. Unfortunately, fraudsters and criminals have followed. At Ruffer we seek to be vigilant, and we urge our clients to do the same. Monday, 18 May 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2020-05-the-green-line May 2020: Balance sheets show the trade-off between resilience and optimisation Wednesday, 06 May 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/ruffer-radio/2020-04-ruffer-radio April 2020: Duncan MacInnes discusses covid-19: how it has changed the investment landscape, the impact on the Ruffer portfolio and what could happen next. Sunday, 26 April 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2020-04-the-green-line April 2020: The era of monetary dominance is over. Helicopter money signals investment regime changes ahead. Wednesday, 08 April 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2020-04-geopolitical-implications Since the 1800s, societies have experienced an unprecedented increase in material wealth, providing a better quality of life and broader opportunities. Yet industrialisation has had a devastating effect on the world’s natural capital. Thursday, 02 April 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2020-04-why-diversity-matters Robust diversity policies encourage the balanced representation of a variety of individuals who bring experience from contrasting backgrounds. Thursday, 02 April 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2020-04-food-waste If food waste were a country, it would be the third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases (8% of annual global greenhouse gases come from food waste). Wednesday, 01 April 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2020-q1-investment-review April 2020: When the elements speak, elemental forces are unleashed, and it is important, in the middle of this storm, to capture the right tone of voice. Tuesday, 31 March 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2020-04-responsible-investment-report-2019 We believe investing responsibly will lead to better long-term performance for our clients. ESG considerations represent both sources of value and also investment risks. Tuesday, 31 March 2020 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2020-03-the-green-line March 2020: February saw concerns over coronavirus truly go global. Whilst public safety and containment of the outbreak must clearly be the primary concern, for financial markets the key question is will the virus cause a recession? Thursday, 12 March 2020 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2020-03-ruffer-review-2020 Download our 2020 edition of the Ruffer Review. It covers everything from a new Cold War to the likely impact of the post-crisis surge in government spending. Tuesday, 03 March 2020 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2020-03-cold-war-ii World order has never been so complex for investors. The US and China have entered a new phase of long-term strategic global competition. Tuesday, 03 March 2020 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2020-03-modern-monetary-theory Stephanie Kelton, guest speaker at Ruffer’s Family Office Conference in November 2019, is a leading authority on Modern Monetary Theory. She sees MMT as a disruptive force. Monday, 02 March 2020 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2020-03-dismantling-the-deflation-machine Seeking to escape the inflation of the 1970s, policymakers have inadvertently engineered an equally powerful deflation machine. Sunday, 01 March 2020 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2020-03-climate-change For investors seeking to influence the behaviour of companies, it is not necessary to choose either divestment or engagement, it can be a combination of both. Sunday, 01 March 2020 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/book-corner/the-forgers-spell A talent for deception. Sunday, 01 March 2020 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2020-02-the-green-line February 2020: What on earth is going on? Gravity is a universal constant. But it turns out that zero interest rates can suspend it – in financial markets, at least. Friday, 14 February 2020 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2020-01-the-green-line January 2020: It’s morning in Great Britain – could we be at the beginning of a mini-boom? Friday, 10 January 2020 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2019-q4-investment-review January 2020: The year of 2019 was one when many of the six impossible things before breakfast remain unresolved – with the shining exception of Brexit, and the wider resolution of domestic politics. Wednesday, 01 January 2020 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2019-12-the-green-line December 2019: Japanese companies' balance sheets bear gifts western investors can only dream of... Thursday, 12 December 2019 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2019-11-the-green-line November 2019: US companies are paying shareholders more than they can afford Thursday, 14 November 2019 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2019-10-the-green-line October 2019: WeWork’s ill-fated IPO is the tip of an iceberg Wednesday, 09 October 2019 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2019-10-risk-profiling-dangers What risk profile is Ruffer? This is a simple question. The short answer is ‘4’. But what does a ‘4’ really mean? Tuesday, 01 October 2019 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2019-q3-investment-review October 2019: There’s a childhood game, whose name changes each generation – currently called Jenga. It starts as a wall of wooden bricks, and successive players remove individual pieces until the loser takes one out, and down falls the edifice. Monday, 30 September 2019 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2019-09-the-green-line September 2019: Investors chasing growth stocks creates both danger and opportunities Wednesday, 11 September 2019 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2019-08-the-green-line August 2019: What is gold telling us about the topsy-turvy reality of negative yielding debt? Thursday, 08 August 2019 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2019-07-the-green-line July 2019: Low rates and quantitative easing (QE) have created another asset bubble Thursday, 11 July 2019 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2019-q2-investment-review July 2019: When the Governor of the Bank of England speaks, it is always worth listening to, and he is on to something when he writes about market liquidity; he is surely right to flag the dangers of the narrow exit doors in a crowded investment room. Sunday, 30 June 2019 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2019-06-the-green-line June 2019: The percentage of unprofitable companies listing on public markets has never been higher Thursday, 13 June 2019 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2019-05-the-green-line May 2019: Can you have your cake and eat it with index-linked bonds? Tuesday, 07 May 2019 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2019-04-the-green-line April 2019: Central bank policies have favoured the ‘haves’ and the ‘have yachts’. Quantitative easing in the next crisis might look very different Thursday, 11 April 2019 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2019-q1-investment-review April 2019: ‘Timing is everything’ runs the investment cliché – actually it’s not: being right is better. In any event, spare a thought for the writer of this investment review who has been told that it must be in final form by 27 March. Sunday, 31 March 2019 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2019-04-corporate-governance-in-japan 2018 saw both another major corporate governance scandal and the revision of the corporate governance code in Japan. We discuss the areas in which significant change has been achieved, and those in which there is still more work to be done. Sunday, 31 March 2019 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/press/investor-chronicle-podcast---a-ruffer-guide-to-preserving-wealth-and-making-positive-returns Duncan MacInnes, co-manager of the investment trust, explains how they seek to mitigate downside and how they are protecting against the downside risks they are most concerned about at the moment. Monday, 25 March 2019 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2019-03-the-green-line March 2019: Over almost 30 years UK house price gains have outperformed the best of British businesses. What next? Friday, 08 March 2019 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2019-03-ruffer-review-2019 Download the first edition of the Ruffer Review. This is our annual review and covers a range of topics from natural capital to behavioral finance and inflation. Tuesday, 05 March 2019 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2019-02-make-america-inflate-again Our era of price stability is coming to an end. Expect regime change, and a more inflationary future. There are lessons from 1960s America. Saturday, 02 March 2019 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2019-03-starlings-and-casinos Prospect theory, complex systems research and the work of two physicists can help investors make better decisions. Friday, 01 March 2019 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2019-01-behind-the-illusion-of-stability The epicentre of risk in the financial system has moved. Friday, 01 March 2019 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/responsible-investment/2019-03-natural-capital For investors, natural capital is no longer purely an environmental concern. It is also a financial one that should not be ignored. Friday, 01 March 2019 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/book-corner/disrupted Candy walls and the cult of a company. Friday, 01 March 2019 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-ruffer-review/2019-03-a-new-world-disorder World order encompasses everything: it is a neglected driver of long-term returns. What might today’s tectonic shifts mean for investors? Thursday, 28 February 2019 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2019-02-the-green-line February 2019: Rising returns on cash may cause investors to withdraw from riskier assets such as equities and corporate bonds Friday, 08 February 2019 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2019-01-the-green-line January 2019: Growing risks in corporate debt markets spell big trouble – and big opportunities Friday, 11 January 2019 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2018-q4-investment-review January 2019: “I thought you chaps at Ruffer said that you’d never lose money for me – what’s gone wrong?” Tuesday, 01 January 2019 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2018-12-the-green-line December 2018: Almost every major asset class has posted negative returns Wednesday, 12 December 2018 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2018-11-the-green-line November 2018: UK stocks are attractive on a free cash flow basis compared with the rest of the world Monday, 12 November 2018 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2018-10-the-green-line October 2018: Gold mining equities offer compelling value compared to the shiny metal Thursday, 11 October 2018 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2018-q3-investment-review October 2018: The performance of the portfolios remains becalmed, but it is the unseen currents in the water which will prove more important in vindicating (or otherwise) the stance that we are taking. Sunday, 30 September 2018 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2018-09-the-green-line September 2018: Japan retakes title of second-largest stock market from China Tuesday, 11 September 2018 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2018-08-the-green-line August 2018: The risk of soaring corporate debt is being ignored Saturday, 11 August 2018 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2018-07-the-green-line July 2018: There are more passively managed assets than actively managed – what could this mean? Wednesday, 11 July 2018 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2018-q2-investment-review July 2018: Our reviews tend to be big pictures or smaller snapshots; this is a ‘big one’, an explanation... Saturday, 30 June 2018 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/2018-07-income-at-any-price In a world of distorted interest rates and high asset prices, protecting capital and producing strong income levels may no longer be mutually compatible. Saturday, 30 June 2018 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2018-06-the-green-line June 2018: Wage inflation in the US poses a growing problem for the Fed Monday, 11 June 2018 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2018-05-the-green-line May 2018: Shrinking central bank balance sheets could undermine record asset prices Friday, 11 May 2018 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2018-04-the-green-line April 2018: In the market sell-off this February, defensive assets failed to defend. Wednesday, 11 April 2018 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2018-q1-investment-review April 2018: The markets have lost their sense of invincibility, but it has not resulted in an up-quarter at Ruffer. Saturday, 31 March 2018 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2018-03-the-green-line March 2018: Japanese shares have risen strongly, but not nearly as much as company profits. Monday, 12 March 2018 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2018-02-the-green-line February 2018: US consumer confidence is very high. Our analysis suggests this is not good news for investors in equity markets. Monday, 12 February 2018 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2017-q4-investment-review January 2018: Our investment portfolios have returned little in 2017 – but this should not be taken to mean that the portfolios are without risk. Monday, 01 January 2018 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2017-q3-investment-review October 2017: Back in the late 1980s, investment strategy seemed to revolve largely around the geographic weightings of equities. Saturday, 30 September 2017 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2017-q2-investment-review July 2017: Stormy weather can be local, but the interlocking nature of Britain’s travails have wider implications and threaten to upset the investment apple-cart. Friday, 30 June 2017 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/investment-review/2017-q1-investment-review April 2017: Markets are high! (you heard it here last) Friday, 31 March 2017 23:00:00 +01:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2023-05-club-patrimoine-fr Monday, 01 January 0001 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/webinars/2022-12-club-patrimoine-fr Monday, 01 January 0001 00:00:00 +00:00 https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/market-views/quarterly-update Monday, 12 January 2026 19:16:31 +00:00