The Green Line | Thinking | Ruffer | Investment Management

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A vaccine: to v or not to v? That is the question

September 2020: The superforecasters of the Good Judgement Project believe there is a 93% probability we will have an FDA-approved vaccine in a year, and enough of it to inoculate 25m people in the US. This is up from just 20% in the dark days of April.

Duncan MacInnes

8 mins | Green Line

Time to value Value

August 2020: The US internet shares have been roaring ahead, particularly in recent months. The coronavirus crisis has accelerated the shift toward online retail and smart communications, and these are the most obvious winners. It has been a giddy ride.

Hermione Davies

8 mins | Green Line

Scrabbling around for income

July 2020: Coronavirus shutdowns have triggered the worst recession since the Great Depression. Like a depth charge dropped against a submarine, we’ve felt the shockwave but have yet to see how much debris floats to the surface. Ratings agencies suggest the damage is serious and that default rates will soar.

Alexander Chartres

8 mins | Green Line

This time really is different

June 2020: The sheer scale of the economic heart attack caused by COVID-19 can be difficult to grasp, especially when the sun is shining and lockdowns are starting to ease. But this month’s chart of job losses and recoveries in US recessions since the Second World War brings home the enormity of the damage.

8 mins | Green Line

When just in time becomes just in case

May 2020: Balance sheets show the trade-off between resilience and optimisation

Duncan MacInnes

8 mins | Green Line

Covid-19 and the dawn of a new market era

April 2020: The era of monetary dominance is over. Helicopter money signals investment regime changes ahead.

Alexander Chartres

8 mins | Green Line

Will covid-19 cause a recession?

March 2020: February saw concerns over coronavirus truly go global. Whilst public safety and containment of the outbreak must clearly be the primary concern, for financial markets the key question is will the virus cause a recession?

8 mins | Green Line

Gravity: suspended until further notice

February 2020: What on earth is going on? Gravity is a universal constant. But it turns out that zero interest rates can suspend it – in financial markets, at least.

Alexander Chartres

8 mins | Green Line

The fog of war is lifting from the UK

January 2020: It’s morning in Great Britain – could we be at the beginning of a mini-boom?

Duncan MacInnes

8 mins | Green Line

Wise men from the East

December 2019: Japanese companies' balance sheets bear gifts western investors can only dream of...

8 mins | Green Line

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