The Green Line | Thinking | Ruffer | Investment Management

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Inflation – are we there yet?

June 2021: We have been positioned for a vaccine-led rally and recovery since summer last year. That recovery is here, economies are opening up and animal spirits are being unleashed. But the pickup is so fast, messy and distorted that traditional measures are not giving the full picture.

Duncan MacInnes

6 mins | Green Line

Easy money comes, easy money can go

May 2021: Over the past five months investors put more money into equity funds than in the previous twelve years combined. At Ruffer we believe we are entering a new regime, which will be disastrous for conventional bonds. But what will this new regime – with the global economy poised for a growth spurt – mean for equities?

Hermione Davies

6 mins | Green Line

Inflation protection – what’s the right recipe?

April 2021: As we emerge from lockdowns and pent-up demand meets ongoing supply constraints, we consider how different asset classes might fare if inflation does return.

8 mins | Green Line

Schrodinger’s bonds

March 2021: Corporate bonds had a near death experience in 2020. After a decade where credit markets grew to $10 trillion, borrowing costs spiked as we stared into the abyss of a global economic shutdown. We had been warning of this for several years and were positioned accordingly. But since the US Federal Reserve drenched the market with its money hosepipe, credit is alive again.

Duncan MacInnes

8 mins | Green Line

Inflation gets real – time to adjust

February 2021: Our view is that rising prices in some traditional industries are signalling that the recovery, when it comes, will look very different and be much more inflationary than anything we have seen for 30 years.

Hermione Davies

8 mins | Green Line

What could possibly go wrong?

January 2021: We all know that 2020 was an incredible, and terrible, year. The pandemic caused the worst recession for centuries, along with an appalling death toll and suffering. Meanwhile financial assets pushed ever upwards, surfing a wave of liquidity meant to counteract the impact of the pandemic.

8 mins | Green Line

The K is not OK

December 2020: The consensus is we are in a K shaped recovery - that means winners and losers. What impact will this have on the economy and will the vaccine change its course?

Duncan MacInnes

5 mins | Green Line

Remind me why you own bonds

November 2020: The future looks even more uncertain than usual. Normally uncertainty translates into lower asset prices. But not this time. And with the prices of all assets buoyed by abundant liquidity, we fear a traditional ‘diversified’ portfolio is not going to be much protection in the next market convulsion.

Hermione Davies

7 mins | Green Line

You can’t tax your way out of this

October 2020: The coronavirus pandemic has hit public finances like a war. Across the world governments have scrambled to offset the economic and social impact of the virus. Huge, and necessary, rises in public spending have pushed government deficits to levels not seen since the two world wars of the twentieth century.

8 mins | Green Line

A vaccine: to v or not to v? That is the question

September 2020: The superforecasters of the Good Judgement Project believe there is a 93% probability we will have an FDA-approved vaccine in a year, and enough of it to inoculate 25m people in the US. This is up from just 20% in the dark days of April.

Duncan MacInnes

8 mins | Green Line

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