The Green Line | Thinking | Ruffer | Investment Management

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Schrodinger’s bonds

March 2021: Corporate bonds had a near death experience in 2020. After a decade where credit markets grew to $10 trillion, borrowing costs spiked as we stared into the abyss of a global economic shutdown. We had been warning of this for several years and were positioned accordingly. But since the US Federal Reserve drenched the market with its money hosepipe, credit is alive again.

Duncan MacInnes

8 mins | Green Line

Inflation gets real – time to adjust

February 2021: Our view is that rising prices in some traditional industries are signalling that the recovery, when it comes, will look very different and be much more inflationary than anything we have seen for 30 years.

Hermione Davies

8 mins | Green Line

What could possibly go wrong?

January 2021: We all know that 2020 was an incredible, and terrible, year. The pandemic caused the worst recession for centuries, along with an appalling death toll and suffering. Meanwhile financial assets pushed ever upwards, surfing a wave of liquidity meant to counteract the impact of the pandemic.

8 mins | Green Line

The K is not OK

December 2020: The consensus is we are in a K shaped recovery - that means winners and losers. What impact will this have on the economy and will the vaccine change its course?

Duncan MacInnes

5 mins | Green Line

Remind me why you own bonds

November 2020: The future looks even more uncertain than usual. Normally uncertainty translates into lower asset prices. But not this time. And with the prices of all assets buoyed by abundant liquidity, we fear a traditional ‘diversified’ portfolio is not going to be much protection in the next market convulsion.

Hermione Davies

7 mins | Green Line

You can’t tax your way out of this

October 2020: The coronavirus pandemic has hit public finances like a war. Across the world governments have scrambled to offset the economic and social impact of the virus. Huge, and necessary, rises in public spending have pushed government deficits to levels not seen since the two world wars of the twentieth century.

8 mins | Green Line

A vaccine: to v or not to v? That is the question

September 2020: The superforecasters of the Good Judgement Project believe there is a 93% probability we will have an FDA-approved vaccine in a year, and enough of it to inoculate 25m people in the US. This is up from just 20% in the dark days of April.

Duncan MacInnes

8 mins | Green Line

Time to value Value

August 2020: The US internet shares have been roaring ahead, particularly in recent months. The coronavirus crisis has accelerated the shift toward online retail and smart communications, and these are the most obvious winners. It has been a giddy ride.

Hermione Davies

8 mins | Green Line

Scrabbling around for income

July 2020: Coronavirus shutdowns have triggered the worst recession since the Great Depression. Like a depth charge dropped against a submarine, we’ve felt the shockwave but have yet to see how much debris floats to the surface. Ratings agencies suggest the damage is serious and that default rates will soar.

Alexander Chartres

8 mins | Green Line

This time really is different

June 2020: The sheer scale of the economic heart attack caused by COVID-19 can be difficult to grasp, especially when the sun is shining and lockdowns are starting to ease. But this month’s chart of job losses and recoveries in US recessions since the Second World War brings home the enormity of the damage.

8 mins | Green Line

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