The Green Line

A monthly chart, plus a short commentary
Schrodinger’s bonds
March 2021: Corporate bonds had a near death experience in 2020. After a decade where credit markets grew to $10 trillion, borrowing costs spiked as we stared into the abyss of a global economic shutdown. We had been warning of this for several years and were positioned accordingly. But since the US Federal Reserve drenched the market with its money hosepipe, credit is alive again.
The K is not OK
December 2020: The consensus is we are in a K shaped recovery - that means winners and losers. What impact will this have on the economy and will the vaccine change its course?
A vaccine: to v or not to v? That is the question
September 2020: The superforecasters of the Good Judgement Project believe there is a 93% probability we will have an FDA-approved vaccine in a year, and enough of it to inoculate 25m people in the US. This is up from just 20% in the dark days of April.
When just in time becomes just in case
May 2020: Balance sheets show the trade-off between resilience and optimisation
The fog of war is lifting from the UK
January 2020: It’s morning in Great Britain – could we be at the beginning of a mini-boom?
How Corporate America stole its own future
November 2019: US companies are paying shareholders more than they can afford
Bond investors: want more yield? Buy gold!
August 2019: What is gold telling us about the topsy-turvy reality of negative yielding debt?
A 21st century fairy tale: the venture capitalist and the unicorn
June 2019: The percentage of unprofitable companies listing on public markets has never been higher
Safe as houses?
March 2019: Over almost 30 years UK house price gains have outperformed the best of British businesses. What next?
2018 – Investors have had nowhere to hide
December 2018: Almost every major asset class has posted negative returns
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