The Green Line

A monthly chart, plus a short commentary
Bitcoin – the future arrived early
July 2021: The best investments are often the least comfortable ones. This is certainly the case with our decision to add bitcoin exposure to our portfolios in November last year.
Inflation – are we there yet?
June 2021: We have been positioned for a vaccine-led rally and recovery since summer last year. That recovery is here, economies are opening up and animal spirits are being unleashed. But the pickup is so fast, messy and distorted that traditional measures are not giving the full picture.
Schrodinger’s bonds
March 2021: Corporate bonds had a near death experience in 2020. After a decade where credit markets grew to $10 trillion, borrowing costs spiked as we stared into the abyss of a global economic shutdown. We had been warning of this for several years and were positioned accordingly. But since the US Federal Reserve drenched the market with its money hosepipe, credit is alive again.
The K is not OK
December 2020: The consensus is we are in a K shaped recovery - that means winners and losers. What impact will this have on the economy and will the vaccine change its course?
A vaccine: to v or not to v? That is the question
September 2020: The superforecasters of the Good Judgement Project believe there is a 93% probability we will have an FDA-approved vaccine in a year, and enough of it to inoculate 25m people in the US. This is up from just 20% in the dark days of April.
When just in time becomes just in case
May 2020: Balance sheets show the trade-off between resilience and optimisation
The fog of war is lifting from the UK
January 2020: It’s morning in Great Britain – could we be at the beginning of a mini-boom?
How Corporate America stole its own future
November 2019: US companies are paying shareholders more than they can afford
Bond investors: want more yield? Buy gold!
August 2019: What is gold telling us about the topsy-turvy reality of negative yielding debt?
A 21st century fairy tale: the venture capitalist and the unicorn
June 2019: The percentage of unprofitable companies listing on public markets has never been higher
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