All-weather investing

Seeking good positive returns.

Come rain or shine.

Ruffer provides investment management services for institutions, pension funds, charities, financial planners and individual investors.
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Duncan_Macinnes

Duncan MacInnes

Investment Director
Joined Ruffer in 2012. He graduated from the University of Glasgow School of Law in 2007 and spent four years working at Barclays in Glasgow, London and Singapore. He is a CFA charterholder and manager and co-manager of two of Ruffer's flagship funds.
Articles by Duncan
What if?
Our approach to building portfolios favours being roughly right, as opposed to precisely wrong. The portfolio is designed to preserve capital across a range of economic and market outcomes. But naturally, we consider some outcomes more likely than others. At this critical juncture in markets, Duncan MacInnes offers an exercise in imagination - what if we are wrong? Fast forward a year from now, what would need to happen in the world to prove our concerns or hopes, misguided or misplaced?
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Ruffer round up – Q2 2022
July 2022: Investment Director Duncan MacInnes joins Rory McIvor for a review of the quarter, discussing the scale of wealth destruction across markets and how they see this rippling out into real world behaviour, and looking forward to what could be on the horizon and what that means for investors.
Nowhere to hide?
May 2022: So far this year, the prices of almost all conventional assets are down. Supposedly diversified portfolios have turned out to be anything but. To preserve their capital, investors will require a new approach to constructing portfolios - flexible, adaptable, robust, and responsive.
Turbulence warning
The return of inflation has jolted markets. But investing for higher inflation is not the same as investing for inflation volatility – this presents and unique and complex problem for investors.
What tightening? You’ve never had it so easy
January 2022: Money has never been so easy. As central banks step up their efforts to tame inflation, conditions could be about to get significantly trickier for investors and their portfolios.
Equities: a false sense of security
For the current generation of investors, equity markets have been remarkably happy hunting grounds. There have been crashes, bangs and wallops in recent years but, so far, central banks have ensured any pain was short-lived. As interest rates have fallen, investors have chased stocks up the page and global equity markets are now more highly valued than ever.
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Ruffer round up – Q3 2021
October 2021: A brief round up where we look at how recent events impacted markets and Ruffer portfolios, and what investors have learned as we move into the fourth quarter.
Investing in big oil
October 2021: The energy sector has fallen from 16% of the S&P 500 just 13 years ago, to below 3% as of today. And yet the integrated oil majors make up more than 6% of Ruffer portfolios. We often receive questions from clients about the rationale and justification for these investments.
Many options, little choice
Investors have been wrestling with how best to defend their portfolios against financial repression (higher levels of inflation relative to lower interest rates) ever since the Financial Crisis in 2008. And now with inflation numbers hitting multi-decade highs, this search has become increasingly urgent. Here, we assess the options available to investors and look at what we’ve chosen in our inflation protection toolkit.
Worried about inflation?
The return of inflation poses a critical threat to balanced portfolios – severing the relationship between bonds and equites which has held steady for nearly half a century. And yet investors, so far, have stuck to what they know – trusting a portfolio built for the world which we are leaving.